Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

Well, the Week 10 NFL slate gets started on “Thursday Night Football” with a matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears. These are two of the worst teams in the league so far this season.

Typically, this game would have massive implications for draft order come the springtime, but the Bears own the rights to the Panthers first-round pick in this year’s draft.  If the season continues on the same trajectory, there is a good chance the Bears will end up with two picks in the top five.

Justin Fields will be out of this game with an injury, meaning Tyson Bagent will get the start once again for Chicago. The Bears are 1-3 in the four games he’s played in this season.

The returns could have been better for the Panthers this season, as top pick Bryce Young has struggled greatly. Carolina has won just one game this season and are 1-5-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.

The Panthers appear to be the worst team in the NFL this season, although this may be their most favorable matchup of the season. On the road, Carolina has a puncher’s chance on Thursday night.

Let’s take a look at this matchup from a betting perspective…

Chicago -3.5 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• Trying to say good things about this Panthers team right now is like putting lipstick on a pig. They beat the Houston Texans a few weeks back but lost to the Colts the following week, 27-13. None of their recent losses have been particularly close, with five of their last seven being by double-digits.

• Carolina is 0-4 ATS on the road this season, the most ATS losses without an ATS win across the entire NFL. Panthers head coach Frank Reich also has a putrid 1-9-1 record ATS in his last 11 games as a head coach, which includes last season when he was with the Colts.

• All eyes will be on the Panthers in the cold, windy confines of Soldier Field on a short week. It’s a tough spot for a team that has struggled collectively this season.

What not to like about this line…

• The Bears shouldn’t be favored against any team, including the Panthers. Bagent hurled three interceptions last week in New Orleans, and the one solid aspect of the Panthers this season is their pass defense, which allows an average of 178.3 yards per game through the air. That’s good enough for the fifth-best mark in the NFL, ahead of teams like the Cowboys, Dolphins, Bills and Lions.

• Since Chicago’s win against the Josh McDaniels-led Raiders, Bagent has struggled mightily and has double the amount of interceptions (six) to touchdowns (three) in his game action this season. The last time the Bears were favored by more than a field goal was during the 2021 season. Chicago’s best win of the season came against the Commanders, by a score of 40-20. At this point, it seems that was more of an anomaly than anything.

• Carolina could be better, but the Panthers have also faced better competition. While they have struggled all season, they should be able to hang in there against a fellow bottom-feeder in the NFL. The Bears have been one of the most-profitable teams to bet against, as bettors who have faded them in every game since 2018 would have a record of 54-37-2.

Over/Under 38 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• The Bears are 6-3 to the over this season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. Ignorance is bliss, and both of these teams are about as shaky as it gets from an offensive perspective. With a total of 37.5, you really are not asking for much from either team. Can these teams each put up 20+ points? If you think so, then the over is the bet for you.

What to like about the under…

• These are two of the worst offensive units in the NFL this year, with both squads ranking in the league’s bottom half in production. Chicago ranks 19th in both points per game (20.9) and yards per game (325.9), while Carolina sits at 26th in ppg (17.5) and 28th in ypg (283.4). Bagent struggles at taking care of the football, while Bryce Young has tossed six interceptions of his own on top of a QBR of 29.5, which is the worst in the league among qualified quarterbacks.

• Unders have been straight cash in primetime with a record of 22-7 this season and 161-102-3 since 2019.

Suggested Prop Bet: Adam Thielen anytime TD scorer (+160)

• Adam Thielen is Bryce Young’s favorite target, leading the Panthers in yards, touchdowns, targets and receptions. Thielen was held in check last week, compiling under 30 yards against the Colts, and is due for a bounce-back game.

• Thielen has always been a safety blanket type of wide receiver, capable of picking up yards after the catch and shifting around the line of scrimmage. Thielen has been one of the lone bright spots in an otherwise putrid Panthers’ offense. Let’s look for him to find the end zone.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Carolina +3 (-110)

It took the Bears nearly a full calendar year to get a win at home. It’s hard not to wonder if they should be favored in any game right now, let alone by more than a field goal. This is more of a fade of the Bears than a backing of the Panthers.

As bad as Frank Reich has been in recent memory as the ship’s captain, he has a record of 8-2 ATS on a short week in his head coaching career. Furthermore, betting on the road team in primetime has been the move, as home teams are just 23-37 ATS in “Thursday Night Football” matchups, and since 2020, they are 21-33. Let’s back the underdog in this matchup and see where the chips fall.