Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

“Thursday Night Football” rolls along as Week 9 of the NFL season begins with an AFC showdown. The Tennessee Titans (3-4) will travel to Pittsburgh, where they will take on the Steelers (4-3).

The Steelers lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 8, falling 20-10, after winning consecutive games against the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams. Despite relatively modest expectations around the NFL, head coach Mike Tomlin has his team trending in the right direction with a winning record at the midway point of the season.

Tomlin has never finished a season with a losing record and has clawed out some impressive wins. Quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of last week’s game against Jacksonville, but he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, meaning he should be ready to roll for TNF.

Tennessee enters this short-week matchup with a bit of a twist at QB. Rookie Will Levis saw the field last week against Atlanta and delivered the best performance from the position all season for Tennessee. Levis stepped up with four touchdown passes to pair with 238 passing yards.

Three of those touchdown passes were to stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who had become lost in the shuffle with the poor overall play from Tennessee out of the gate this season. Levis will get the start against the Steelers, and the jury is still out about how he will perform in the matchup, although he looked cool, calm and collected when thrown into the fire last week.

Let’s take a look at this matchup from a betting perspective…

Pittsburgh -3.0 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• This Steelers team just does not know how to throw in the dang towel (pun intended). Collectively, the Steelers are not great on paper or with the eye test, but they find ways to stay in, and win, games. Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and there are trends galore to back it up.

• Under Tomlin, when the Steelers close as a favorite of three points or less, they are 85-56-6 against the spread (ATS), including 33-18-4 ATS at home. Pittsburgh is back at home for the second consecutive week. The Steelers are 27-17-2 ATS, playing on a homestand. Tomlin just flat-out dominates at home, posting a record of 17-11-1 straight up on short rest on his home field. The games aren’t pretty, but the Steelers rarely get blown out, with their lone double-digit loss of the season coming in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers. Furthermore, the Titans have looked like a stagnant team for most of the season despite their win last week.

• Was last week a flash in the pan for the Titans? Or can they be a competitive team after the QB swap? Either way, the Steelers are the more competent team across the board.

What not to like about this line…

• There is an unknown factor with this Titans team that could lead to some momentum shifts throughout the course of the game. Levis looked really sharp last week, and the Steelers secondary is already pretty banged up for this matchup. Minkah Fitzpatrick is already out of this matchup, with Damontae Kazee and Levi Wallace also appearing on the injury report leading up to this game. It’s hard to imagine this Steelers team has a winning record, given their defense has been one of the worst units in the league this season, ranking 18th and 30th, respectively, in passing yards per game and total yards per game on average.

• Levis is a bit of a mystery, and he has two elite skill players by his side with Hopkins at wide receiver and Derrick Henry in the backfield. Both players appeared on the Titans’ injury report but should play.

• Furthermore, Mike Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the NFL and has been a great coach to back as an underdog. Vrabel-led teams are 11-4 SU and 8-7 ATS as a dog on short rest. Vrabel is one short-week victory away from becoming the second-most profitable coach SU on short rest last 20 years. This is a good spot to back the dog catching a field goal with a VERY low total. Lastly, home teams on TNF are 22-37 ATS since 2020.

Over/Under 37.0 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• This is about as low of a total as you’ll see pregame in the NFL today. Off the rip, it will not take a ton of scoring to push this game over the number. There are plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball that could help push this game over. If Levis plays as he did last week, and Pickett bounces back from injury, this game could clear the number, as both teams essentially need to score 20-plus points to get us there.

• Both defensive units are putrid, ranking near the bottom half of the league in major statistical departments. Leaky defenses mixed with injuries are the keys to generating points in this matchup.

What to like about the under…

• Unders have been absolute cash in primetime as of late. The under is 19-7 in primetime games so far this season and 158-102-3 since the 2019 season. In other words, the under has been cashing at a high rate in primetime the last few seasons.

• While both teams have some holes on defense, collectively, the offense units have not been anything to ride home about. These teams average under 20 points per game and rank 24th and 30th in yards per game on average. This total is already extremely low, but if both teams play as they have for the most part this season, they could stay within this number.

Suggested Prop Bet: Titans over 17.5 points (-110)

Let’s roll with Vrabel, Levis, Hopkins, and Henry to put up some points in this matchup. Tennessee went well over this number last week with Levis under center, and he should feel more comfortable given his preparation and experience gained under his belt last week.

The Steelers defense is a bit overrated, and they have many injuries in that secondary. With D-Hop on the outside and Henry in the backfield, Tennessee can keep their play-calling fresh and simple for the young QB, who has a wild card factor of his own. Let’s buy the spike and back the Titans to put up some points in this matchup.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Tennessee +3.0 (-110)

The Steelers’ record is a bit misleading, as they’ve won some close games against mediocre opponents. Two of their wins have come against division opponents, with the other two coming against the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Rams (with some help from Sean McVay). If the roles were reversed, and the Steelers were on the road catching the points, we would probably back them. However, this Steelers team leaves a lot to be desired despite their record, and there is not a lot of confidence in them winning by over a field goal in this matchup.

The Titans have been a solid bet in this spot under Vrabel. They are not that far off from the Steelers talent-wise. Let’s embrace the uncertainty with Levis and back the Titans to keep this game close.