Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

“Thursday Night Football” rolls on with a compelling matchup between two teams that enter the short week coming off a loss in Week 7. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel to upstate New York to clash with the Buffalo Bills in primetime to get the Week 8 NFL slate started.

Tampa Bay has lost three of its last five games, including back-to-back losses to the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons. After getting off to a quick start this season, the Bucs have come back down to earth, especially on defense, where they rank near the bottom of the league across the board. They’ve’ especially struggled against the pass, which could be problematic for this matchup.

The Bills have been frustrating all season, and really, this has been the case since their epic loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs two years ago. Since then, Buffalo has failed to recapture its dominance from the 2021 season, and frankly, its play on the field is stale. Quarterback Josh Allen has been good but not great. He has had trouble protecting the football, with a turnover in three consecutive games and seven total interceptions on the year. On the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo has struggled to replace starters Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano, who have both been sidelined with injuries.

Let’s take a look at this matchup from a betting perspective…

Buffalo -9.5 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• This is a massive spread for a game on Thursday night, but this Bills offense has the potential to run up the score. The Buccaneers defense is actually ranked within the top 10 points per game allowed on average with 17.3; however, their pass offense has been below average this season, allowing an average of 342.5 yards per game, which ranks 20^th across the NFL. Buffalo’s offense is one of the strongest units in the league and is especially effective in the passing game, where they average just under 260 passing yards per game to pair with their 28.3 points per game on average, which ranks third in the league.

• Josh Allen has won 59 games in his career, and 45 of those wins have been by over a touchdown. Furthermore, backing the Bills as a 7.0-point favorite or more after a loss has been relatively profitable, as Allen has posted a 6-2-2 record ATS in such instances. If he can protect the football and get his team back on track, Buffalo could take advantage of a leaky Buccaneers defense in this matchup.

What not to like about this line…

• While Tampa Bay has not been spectacular as of late, do we trust this Bills team to cover this big of a spread with how they are currently playing? Something about them seems off. Yes, the NFL is a week-to-week league, but their loss last week against the Patriots was concerning. Buffalo has not been great in bounce-back spots, posting a 2-4-1 record ATS in their last seven games following a loss.

• Despite Tampa’s struggles, they are playing bend-don’t-break defense, allowing 17.3 points per game despite their mediocre numbers collectively between the 20s. Buffalo has played some “bad” teams the last couple of weeks in the New York Giants and New England Patriots, going 0-2 ATS in both games. It’s a tough spot to lay this many points.

Over/Under 43.5 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• Neither one of these defenses is very good at the moment. We highlighted how bad the Tampa Bay defense has been against the pass, and the Buffalo defense has not been much better collectively. Injuries have crushed them, and now, Tampa Bay leaves a lot to be desired on the offensive side of the ball. Buffalo has shown an ability to play down to the level of its competition in consecutive weeks leading up to this game. 

• Despite their recent struggles, this Bills offense is still dynamic and one of the best collective units in the league. This is a low total overall, so a vintage performance from the Buffalo Bills could help push this game over the total.

What to like about the under…

• It could be safe to say we know what to expect from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. Tampa Bay has yet to score 30 points in a single game this season and have registered only 36 points combined over their last two games. On the flip side, the Bills’ offense appears to be lagging a little bit as they have also posted 36 points in their last two games. With questions around Josh Allen’s ability to protect the football, turnovers could be pivotal in keeping this a close and low-scoring game.

Preferred Prop: Stefon Diggs Any Time TD +100

If there’s such a thing as free money, this is it. As outlined, the Tampa Bay pass defense is suspect at best, so there’s a high probability that Allen and Co. will be tossing TDs all night long. And who better to catch one than Diggs, Allen’s favorite target? Diggs has scored in four-of-seven games, including three of the last four. Tonight there will be plenty of opportunity to spread the love and Diggs – at +100 no less – will be on the receiving end (pun intended) of Allen’s big night.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Tampa Bay +9.5 (-110)

Something about this Bills team feels off at the moment, and it’s tough to lay this many points with how they are playing while factoring in the short week. Buffalo is one of those teams that is a public darling, while Tampa Bay has become irrelevant since Tom Brady’s retirement. The Buccaneers have come back down to earth following their hot start, but they are still a better team in the public perception. All things considered, the Bills not looked right all season, so let’s take the points and back the Bucs to keep this game within the number.