Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints

The “Thursday Night Football” slate rolls along with the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to New Orleans to take on the Saints. The Jags are riding a three-game win streak entering this matchup, including back-to-back wins in London followed by a victory over the Colts last week stateside.

At 4-2, the Jaguars will look to get their fifth win of the season on a short week against the Saints. New Orleans comes into this game with a 3-3 record, having lost three of its last four games, with the losses coming against the Packers, Bucs, and Texans.

This is not the sexiest matchup on paper, but there are wagers to be made. For Jacksonville, there is a chance they will be without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is dealing with a knee injury and is listed as questionable for the game. If Lawrence were out, C.J. Beathard is the backup QB; he has not started an NFL game since 2020. Keep an eye on the injury report before making decisions about this game. For New Orleans, it has been a bit of an up-and-down team, and this week is an opportunity for them to get back on track before slipping below .500 on the season.

Nevertheless, there are still wagers to be made, so let’s take a look at this matchup from a betting perspective…

New Orleans -2.5 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• If Trevor Lawrence is not playing, Jacksonville could be dead to rights. C.J. Beathard is not exactly a quality backup quarterback, and this New Orleans team has been especially good on defense this season. QB is easily the most crucial position in the game, and if Lawrence is out, expect to see this line move in favor of New Orleans. Beathard has started 12 games in the NFL and has a 2-10 record straight up, along with a 5-7 record ATS in that span. Beathard aside, the Jags have not been a great team to back at night on the road. In recent history, Jacksonville is 4-12 straight up and 5-11 ATS in road games at night.

• Furthermore, this Saints’ defense has been stout this season, ranking within the top-10 for yards-per-game and points-per-game. New Orleans will be ready to play on defense, and not having Lawrence could compound Jacksonville’s hurdles in this matchup.

What not to like about this line…

• If Lawrence is healthy, the Jaguars are the more complete team in this matchup. Not to take anything away from New Orleans, but the Saints’ wins this season have come against subpar teams such as the Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots, so not exactly anything to write home about. Conversely, they’ve lost to quality opponents like the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans. This is easily the Saints’ most challenging task to date this season. The Jags were a playoff team last season, and while they have not looked the part entirely so far this year, they are beginning to hit their stride as the season goes along.

• Saints head coach Dennis Allen has not been a good bet in this spot. Allen is only 18-41 straight up as a head coach in his career, meaning he’s only won roughly 30% of the games he’s been a head coach. That’s obviously not great, but this matchup comes on a short week where Allen has been even worse in his career, posting a 1-7 record straight up on a short week. The Jaguars are the better team across the board despite the similarity in record.

Over/Under 40.5 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• Plenty of factors leading up to this matchup could dictate whether someone should bet the over or the under, so keep an eye out on the injury report leading up to game time. That said, both of these teams have solid players on offense capable of opening up a game and running up the score.

• For Jacksonville, you have Travis Etienne in the backfield and Calvin Ridley at wide receiver. Even if Lawrence does not play, these are capable weapons that should help make life easier for the backup quarterback. On the flipside, New Orleans has Derek Carr at quarterback, Chris Olave and Michael Thomas at wide receiver in addition to Alvin Kamara in the backfield.

• While the New Orleans defense has been solid this year, Jacksonville ranks near the bottom of the league, and we have already seen numerous times this year that they are susceptible to allowing chunk plays and a handful of points. Plenty of talent on both sides of the ball to help push this score over the total.

What to like about the under…

• Believe it or not, the under has cashed in all six games New Orleans has played this season, and a significant reason why is because of their defense. New Orleans has allowed 20-plus points only once this season, as its defense has been one of the best collective units in the NFL, allowing only 16 points per game on average so far this year. On the flip, the Jags’ offense has been average at best, ranking in the middle of the pack among NFL teams for major offensive categories. Even with Lawrence, this Jags’ offense has not quite hit its stride yet this season, and this is of note, being they take on a Saints unit that has been one of the best in the league. 

Preferred Prop: Travis Etienne Anytime TD – EVEN

There may not be a player in the NFL as red hot as Jags RB1 Travis Etienne. In his last two games, Etienne has scored four touchdowns, compiled 191 rushing yards and 76 receiving yards. There’s no doubt he’s the focal point of the offense, and with that type of production there’s always a chance of finding paydirt. Besides, if Trevor Lawrence can’t go, Etienne will be asked to carry the load. If Lawrence does go, surely Etienne be used heavily to limit his quarterback’s exposure.  Best yet, the price is right at +110.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Jacksonville M/L (+115)

Assuming Trevor Lawrence plays, Jacksonville is the side to be on in this matchup. New Orleans’ record is a little bit misleading, and while you can’t take anything away from them for their three victories, it’s hard to buy stock in a team that has beaten arguably the three worst teams in the NFL this season. Even the three teams they lost to have not been all that good this season. All in all, Jacksonville is the better team overall, especially if Lawrence can play in this matchup.

A hobbled Lawrence against this New Orleans defense could be problematic, but the upside remains with this Jaguars team. Unlike the Saints, we have seen Jacksonville earn victories against a good mix of talent, including a 25-20 win over the Buffalo Bills a couple of weeks ago. Simply put, Jacksonville is the better team, so let’s cross our fingers and hope that Trevor Lawrence is ready to go and back the Jags for this Thursday-night showdown.