Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos will head to Kansas City for a Week 6 showdown on “Thursday Night Football” against the Chiefs. It looks like a lopsided matchup on paper.

Since losing on opening night, the Chiefs have not blinked with consecutive wins against the Jaguars, Bears, Jets and Vikings heading into this game with the Broncos. While the Chiefs have not looked quite as explosive on offense this season compared to years past, they are still one of the best teams in the league and the second betting favorite to win the Super Bowl at +450, behind only the 49ers.

This season has been a disaster for the Broncos under Sean Payton. While Russell Wilson and the offense look slightly better compared to last season, Denver’s defense has regressed to one of the league’s worst units. Already, fans are looking toward the NFL Draft, and rumors have swirled that Denver will look to be sellers at the NFL trade deadline.

Denver’s lone win came against the Bears on the road in Week 4. Outside of that, the Broncos have lost games to the Commanders, Jets, Raiders, and Dolphins in embarrassing fashion. It looks like they will have a pick in the top-five come the springtime if things keep up.

Nevertheless, there are still wagers to be made, so let’s take a look at this matchup from a betting perspective…

Kansas City -10.5 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• There is no question that the Chiefs are the better team in every facet of the game on offense, defense, special teams and in the coaching department. While their offense has not been as good as previous seasons, it still ranks within the top 10 around the league in major categories, such as points per game (25), passing yards per game (258), and total yards per game (381).

• The Chiefs have never lost to the Broncos with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback. The last time Denver beat Kansas City was back in the 2015 season in which they won the Super Bowl. Translation: Kansas City owns Denver.

• Yes, the spread is massive for a short-week game, but the Broncos look like one of, if not the, worst teams in the league. Denver has also yet to cover the spread in a game this season.

What not to like about this line…

• Kansas City has only blown out one team this season: The Bears. The Chiefs won that game 41-10, but the rest of their matchups have been competitive. Kansas City is a little banged up entering this game, with Travis Kelce, George Karlaftis and Tommy Townsend all listed as questionable for this matchup. If Travis Kelce is out, that could significantly impact the line and outcome of this game.

• While Kansas City has dominated Denver head-to-head over the last handful of seasons, Denver has covered in four of the previous five games. The only blowout in that stretch came in 2021 when KC beat Denver 22-9. The Broncos lost the two games last season by a combined nine points. Additionally, the Broncos offense has actually been decent this season, ranking 10th in points per game (24) and 16th in total yards per game (328).

Over/Under 47.5 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• The over is 6-4 between the two teams this season, with the over cashing in four consecutive Broncos’ games. Right now, this Broncos team is worse than last season’s squad. We already saw the Dolphins hang 70 on them, and Kansas City could have an opportunity to run up the score, given Denver’s league-worst defense. As it stands, Denver ranks dead last in points per game allowed (36) and yards per game (450). That’s a recipe for disaster against the Chiefs’ offense.

• The Chiefs have scored 23-plus points in each of their last three matchups, including the 41-point blowout win against the Bears, which is a comparable opponent to the Broncos. Denver’s defense stinks, and while they’ve managed to hang with Kansas City in years past, they’ve allowed nearly 100 points in the last three h2h games combined.

What to like about the under…

• Injuries could deter this Chiefs offense from hitting its stride, especially if Kelce doesn’t play. While Kansas City is winning games, it is still evident that they are working out some kinks in their offensive scheme. There is also the short week to factor into this matchup and also the question of just general complacency with this Kansas City team, given their success over the last handful of seasons. You also have to wonder if Denver’s defense will figure it out and rise to the occasion at some point this season.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Denver +10.5 (-110)

This feels like a big roll of the dice, especially considering how bad Denver’s defense has been. That said, it’s a short week, Denver’s offense has been competent to a degree, Kansas City has some critical injuries, and the Broncos have to have some pride, right? Mahomes is 22-2 straight up as a double-digit favorite, but 10-13-1 ATS in that span. Furthermore, he’s 18-1 SU as a touchdown favorite against the AFC West but only 8-10-1 ATS. Lastly, home teams are 21-35 ATS on “Thursday Night Football” since the 2020 season. The Chiefs are the better team, but let’s look for Denver to keep this within the number.