Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders

The Thursday night slate rolls on as the winless Bears head to Washington to take on the 2-2 Commanders. While this game is not the sexiest on the Week 5 slate, it provides an opportunity to get some skin in the game.

After embarrassingly losing to the Broncos, the Bears are the worst football team in the NFL and on the fast track to the top pick in the NFL Draft after just four games. While the Chicago offense generated 28 points against Denver, the body of work has been uninspiring. Morale is low around the Bears despite the hype surrounding the team before the season. The Bears are 0-3-1 against the spread this season, and while things seem to be bad in Chi-town, they could have a chance against a Commanders team that is middle-of-the-pack at best in the NFL.

Washington’s two wins arrive via games against two of the worst teams in the league – the Cardinals and the Broncos. Their two losses come at the hands of two of the best – the Eagles and Bills. Washington has absolutely been the better team collectively this season, but there is no guarantee they will cover this spread or even win the game.

Let’s take a look at this matchup from a betting perspective…

Washington -6.0 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• This Bears team is foul. There is really no other way to put it, as the Bears have struggled on both sides of the ball. With a spread close to a touchdown, Washington will have opportunities to move the ball and score points. Chicago’s defense allows 34.3 per game on average, which is the second-most in the league behind only the Broncos, who the Commanders have already beat this season. Sam Howell is averaging a respectable 240 yards per game on average, ranking 11^th among quarterbacks. His 67.1% competition percentage ranks 16^th, and his 94 competitions rank eighth. The Commanders can do some damage against this Chicago defense with guys like Brian Robinson Jr. and Terry McLaurin at the skill positions.

What not to like about this line…

• Yes, the Bears’ defense is terrible, but Washington’s is not much better. The Commanders have allowed 30-plus points in each of the last three games and are especially bad against the run, allowing 122.5 yards per game on the ground. There are three defensive backs on the injury report, along with wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson. Despite the loss, Chicago’s offense was in a groove at one point against Denver. Quarterback Justin Fields completed his first 16 pass attempts of the game, a franchise record. The Bears can score points against bad or subpar teams, as proved last week against Denver and Week 1 against the Packers, where they put up 20 points. Washington’s defense is not as bad as Denver’s, but it’s far from an elite unit, which is notable with a spread near a touchdown.

Over/Under 44.5 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• They are two bottom-of-the-barrel defenses, and while the returns have not been impressive for either side, the playing field is close to even. The over has cashed in all four games the Bears have played this season and in two games for the Commanders for a 6-2 combined record to the over. Justin Fields’ seven touchdowns are the sixth-most in the league, and he is coming off a game where he set franchise records for his first-half performance. Chicago has scored 20-plus points in three games this season, and against this defense, they should manage to score at least that and some. The same goes for the Commander’s offense. These two essentially cancel each other out, and while there is not much star power in this game, there could be plenty of points. The over is also 4-1 in the last five head-to-head matchups.

What to like about the under…

• This is a short week for two organizations that are not necessarily sound teams on the field. This could lead to a slow start or complications across the board. These two met last season in October, and it wasn’t a real action-packed game, with the Commanders winning 12-7. With two poor teams, it’s hard to forecast scoring, and this could wind up being a repeat of last season’s matchup.

Preferred Prop: D.J. Moore over 48.5 receiving yards (-110)

• D.J. Moore is WR1 for the Bears and a part of the trade that sent the No. 1 overall pick to the Panthers. While things have not played out as the Bears pictured, Moore is still an excellent wideout and capable of a breakout game. He’s being targeted on over 20% of Chicago’s offensive plays and already has two 100-plus yard games, including last week. As stated, this Washington offense is nothing to ride home about, so let’s look for Fields to find his top guy throughout the night and rack up the yards.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Over 44.5 points (-110)

Neither one of these teams have shown an ability to stop their opponent from running up the score, and that won’t change here this week. Two bottom-five defensive units in the league with ample skill position players on both sides of the ball should result in a good back-and-forth matchup between the two teams. The potential for a big scoring game outweighs a repeat opportunity of last year’s matchup. Washington has lost two-straight games after starting the season 2-0, so expect its best effort as the Commanders look to get back on track. For Chicago, the Bears are playing for pride. Fields is also trying to showcase his ability to be a viable quarterback in this league. He balled out last week and has an excellent chance to do so again against Washington. Points, points, points!