New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams

A battle of two 7-7 teams with playoff aspirations makes for an enticing matchup on Thursday Night Football. The New Orleans Saints will head across the country to face the Los Angeles Rams to get the Week 16 slate rolling.

Both teams enter the matchup fresh off a victory. Both will look to keep the momentum moving with only a few games remaining in the regular season.

New Orleans has won back-to-back games to get back to .500 on the season and is currently in a three-horse race for the NFC South title. The Saints have clicked on both sides of the ball the last couple of weeks, scoring 52 points and allowing just 12.

The wins have come against the lowly Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, so take the success at a little bit of a discount. However, New Orleans is clicking at the right time as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Saints will be without offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk, cornerback Lonnie Johnson, and defensive ends Isaiah Foskey and Payton Turner.

The Rams have won four of their last five games, with the lone loss being in a 37-31 shootout against the Baltimore Ravens, the best team in the AFC to this point. Two of those four wins have yielded 30-plus points, as the Rams’ offense hits its stride.

Los Angeles has roughly a 50% chance to make the playoffs, meaning a win in this matchup is imperative, especially with two road games forthcoming to end the regular season. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams are dialed in. Cornerback Tre Tomlinson is out for this matchup, but the Rams are relatively healthy beyond that.

Los Angeles -4.0 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• This Rams’ offense is humming right now, having scored 28-plus points in their last four games. Stafford has tossed 12 touchdowns to only one interception during that span and looks as good as he did during the Rams’ 2021 run to the Super Bowl. Now, there’s obviously a long way to go to get back to that point, but the Rams go as their offense does, and lately, it’s been one of the best units in the NFL. Another sign that the tide is turning is back-to-back 100-yard receiving games for Kupp.

• The Saints offense has been middle-of-the-pack at best, averaging 21.9 points per game, which ranks 13^th in the NFL. That number is inflated as well, given the Saints’ last two games were against the Panthers and Giants. Bryce Young has looked absolutely clueless, and Tommy DeVito is a nice story, but clearly not the long-term answer at quarterback in New York. Translation: Put little stock into the Saints’ recent victories. New Orleans’s schedule really has not been all that difficult, yet they have losses against the Packers, Bucs, Texans, Jags, Vikings, Falcons and Lions.

What not to like about this line…

• The strong suit of the Saints’ defense is their secondary, as they have yet to allow a team to find the end zone in two straight games. While they may not generate a strong pass rush on a consistent basis, their secondary has held up pretty well throughout the season. Williams has helped throttle the Rams’ offense, but we know that Sean McVay likes to throw the ball, especially with his current quarterback dialed in. This could play right into the hands of New Orleans.

• This New Orleans offense has finally started to resemble the unit many had hoped for when the season started. Derek Carr hurled three touchdown passes last week and is playing his best football of the season over the previous few weeks. Most importantly, New Orleans is getting healthy on offense at the right time, with Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Jimmy Graham and Rashid Shaheed are all ready to roll. The Rams’ secondary has not been great this season and could be thin due to injuries, which bodes well for Carr and the offense.

Over/Under 46.0 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• We saw this total open around 44.5 before ballooning up to 46.0. This indicated some money coming in on the over early in the week. If both teams continue to sizzle on offense, plenty of points can be scored in this matchup. While the jury is still out on the consistency of the Saints’ offense, the Rams have shown the ability to pile on the points regardless of the opponent and will be at home for a second consecutive week, which bodes well for playing on Thursday night. Furthermore, if the Rams can jump out to an early lead, it will force the Saints to pick up the pace on offense.

• Los Angeles has scored 28-plus points in four consecutive games, which is the first time they have done that since Jared Goff was the quarterback back in 2018. Williams has been a part of the recent success, as the Rams average 27.0 points per game when he plays versus 14.3 when he does not. There’s no reason for the Rams’ offense to cool off. Combine that with Carr and the Saints hitting their stride, and you have a recipe for points.

What to like about the under…

• 44 is one of the key numbers when betting NFL totals, so the fact that the total has moved through the numbers makes a bet on the over a little bit tougher to justify, especially when you factor in the short week for both teams. Could be a chance to fade the line move and take the under.

• This is a must-win game for both teams, which could lead to conservative play calling early on to feel the other team out and play things safe. And while both teams are playing well at the moment, they are two .500 squads and have their own share of flaws that could shine through again.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Los Angeles -4.0 (-110)

The Rams are a team to keep an eye on to play spoiler if they manage to sneak into the postseason. They are still just one full season removed from winning the Super Bowl and feature key components from that squad on both sides of the ball. As noted, this L.A. goes as the offense does, and they show no signs of slowing down now that they have everybody healthy. It took Kupp a few weeks to get settled, and now that he has, this Rams offense is dangerous. Between getting players back for injury and new guys stepping up like Nacua, all while figuring out how to evolve the offense from its Super Bowl shell, Los Angeles is locked in. While the Rams are laying more than a field goal, the Saints’ recent wins appear to be fools’ gold, so let’s back L.A. to keep things going on this Thursday Night Football matchup.