Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

The Week 11 NFL slate gets rolling with a marquee matchup between two of the best teams in football, with the Cincinnati Bengals traveling to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. If the season ended today, every team from the AFC North division would make the playoffs, which is genuinely insane when you think about it.

These teams enter the “Thursday Night Football” matchup following tough losses in Week 10. The Bengals saw their four-game win streak end as rookie sensation C.J. Stroud played like an MVP-caliber player en route to a walk-off victory for the Houston Texans. Baltimore also had its four-game win streak snapped, losing to the Cleveland Browns 33-31 in a shootout.

Baltimore has been one of the best teams in the NFL all season, led by a top-10 offensive and defensive unit. On the other hand, the Bengals started the season slow, which is not uncommon under Zac Taylor’s command, but have picked it up in recent weeks, winning five of their last seven games after dropping their first two games of the season, which included a 27-24 loss to the Ravens in Week 2.

Let’s look at this matchup from a betting perspective as this is one of the season’s more enticing Thursday Night Football matchups…

Baltimore -3.5 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• The Ravens have not skipped a beat for the most part this season, as last week seems more like an anomaly than the norm for this Baltimore squad. A couple of boneheaded mistakes and a hungry division opponent led to a frustrating loss for Baltimore. Now, the Ravens will turn the page against a familiar opponent.

• Lamar Jackson has been sensational this season, and while he is not lighting up the stat sheet, he appears to be the most in command of the offense since his MVP season. Jackson is completing an absurd 70.3% of his passes this season, second in the league only to Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. His QB rating of 98.1 is among the top-10 QBs in the league, and his Ravens’ team is averaging the fifth most points per game (27) on average under his direction.

• Bengals pass rusher Trey Hendrickson suffered a knee injury last week against the Texans, and his status is uncertain for this matchup. Even if he does play, he will not be 100%, which bodes well for this Ravens offense. Wideout Tee Higgins has already been ruled out this game with a hamstring injury, and fellow wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is not on the injury report. Still, he has also been dealing with some injuries throughout the season.

• This Baltimore team can run up the score, having posted 30+ points in each of its last four games. This is a recipe for success against a middle-of-the-pack Bengals unit.

What not to like about this line…

• Despite last week’s loss, the Bengals appear to be rounding into form. Beyond that, Joe Burrow is catching over a field goal in this matchup. This spot has been an absolute cash cow for bettors as Burrow is 15-2 against the spread as an underdog of 3.0-plus points in his NFL career. Furthermore, the Bengals allowed over 21 points in last week’s game against the Texans. Cincy has been great at bouncing back after a big loss, posting a 24-11-1 ATS in the next start after giving up 21+ points in the previous game.

• Here’s another fun Burrow stat: The Ravens opened up as a -1.5 favorite, and the line has moved to over a field goal. Burrow is 14-5-1 against the spread (ATS) when the betting line moves in favor of the opponent. Lastly, Burrow and the Bengals have been dynamite on the road with an ATS record of 21-11 on the road or neutral site in his career.

• Burrow as a dog on the road while rounding into form is a mighty tempting spot to bet.

Over/Under 46.5 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• If recent history indicates how this game might play out, consider the over for this matchup. The Bengals and Ravens cleared 46 points in their first matchup of the season and have cleared the number in four of their last six games combined.

• Both teams are putting up points on offense, and the over has chased in 5 of their last six games head-to-head. If both of these squads continue along with their pace, they run up this score.

What to like about the under…

• We are talking about a cold-weather divisional game in the middle of November. This is the highest total in a head-to-head matchup over the last three contests, and knowledge of the opponent could make this a lower-scoring game as both teams feel each other out.

• Points are down across the league this season, and primetime unders have been straight cash with a record of 25-7. Both teams are also banged up on offense. We highlighted the Bengals above; however, Baltimore has eight players on their injury report entering this matchup, including three offensive linemen and wideout Devin Duvernay.

• Between the injuries, the short week, and it being a divisional game, the under is an enticing play for this game.

Suggested Prop Bet: Lamar Jackson anytime TD scorer (+130)

• While Jackson has been great at passing the ball this season, he is still very much a threat to hit the ground running. The Bengals boast one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, allowing 136.2 yards per game on the ground, the third worst in the league ahead of only the New York Jets and Denver Broncos.

• Jackson has five rushing touchdowns in 10 games this season and has not done so in the last three games. He’s due, and the odds are close to 2/1; the juice is worth the squeeze here.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Cincinnati +3.5 (-110)

Make sure to get this in sooner rather than later to get the extra half-point, as this game has field-goal victory written all over it. Burrow and the Bengals are notorious for starting the season slow, and their record does not accurately reflect how good this team is and the direction in which they are trending.

Baltimore is a solid team, but something is missing to push them over the top. It’s been a season of parity in the NFL, and Baltimore is no exception. There really are no great teams this season as there have been in years past. Everybody feels beatable in any given game, and we have seen this play out with big favorites laying eggs across the NFL landscape this year.

Let’s grab the Bengals catching over a field goal and back Burrow to cover another spread as an underdog.