The Sunday Night Football Big Three

A trifecta of bets that will make SNF worth the wait

Last year when the Titans and Chiefs played, Tennessee didn’t just get the best of Kansas City, the Titans absolutely dominated with a 27-3 win. That will most definitely be on the minds of Chiefs players as this matchup will be primetime on “Sunday Night Football.”

That was then, this is now. With a number like -12.5, it would appear that all signs point to a big win for the Chiefs. However, the Titans come into the game on a five-game winning streak. The streak should be closely examined, however, as the Titans wins have come against the Raiders, Colts, Commanders, Colts and Texans – not exactly the NFL’s elite. The last time Tennessee played a top-tier team – Buffalo – it was blown out 41-7.

It’s a pivotal game in the AFC, one the Chiefs should win. But, the physical style of the Titans makes it a dramatic contrast of styles, and certainly one worth watching.

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Steve Quinne’s pick: Kansas City -12.5 (-110)

First of all, Kansas City is at home in November, which for them is an advantage like no other. They’re also coming off of a bye week, which statistically speaking means they have an 86.9% chance of winning. That is due to Andy Reid’s 20-3 record coming off a bye week as a head coach. And although it might appear that the Titans are clicking on all cylinders of late, they haven’t beaten a good team all season. Week 1 and 2 losses against the Giants and Bills should raise concern for anyone willing to hop on the Tennessee bandwagon. Furthermore, no matter how well the Titans run the football, they can’t throw a lick. Everyone finds themselves behind the Chiefs at some point, and the Titans aerial “attack” won’t be able to answer the call. Remember that Kansas City is one of the NFL’s elite teams and take the Chiefs and the big number.

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UNDER 46.5

For the record, Steve Quinne doesn’t love this bet. In fact, if it moved 1.5 either way, he still wouldn’t. This game has the chance to be one of those NFL anomalies – where the right team will win (and cover), but it won’t go exactly as planned. And if that’s the case, the over-under isn’t that appealing. But, if one must pick a side, the under is likely the play. A hypothetical script could look something like this: Chiefs jump out ahead. Titans stick with the run early but are forced to abort mission by the early third quarter. Titans can’t pass and Chiefs coast in while running the ball and eating up clock. Sound reasonable? The game could still be lopsided, but even with the Chiefs dynamic offense, the total could be low. If you must, take the under.

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Derrick Henry UNDER 86.5 rushing yards

If you buy into the logic with regard to the over-under, stick with it here, too. The Titans are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league – for good reason. Derrick Henry is an elite ballcarrier who just last week had his best game of the season rushing for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Amazingly, the Titans threw just one pass in the second half of their win over the Texans. They won’t be able to do the same thing against the Chiefs, however. Kansas City is the third-best rushing defense in the NFL, allowing just 92.0 yards per game. So, not only will the Chiefs defense make it tough on Henry, but their offense will have an even bigger impact. Once the lead goes to double digits, the team that passed just once in the second half last week will be asked to play catch up by throwing a bunch – and that’s bad news for Henry. In any other week, the over would be the play. But not this time around.   

Steve Quinne’s Couch Potato Parlay

From morning ‘til night, hang in there for this big Sunday payout

A.M. Leg

Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
1:00 PM ET
SuperBook Line: Miami -4.5

The Bears have been playing better as of late. They had a nice win over the Patriots on Monday night of Week 7, winning 33-14 at New England. But Chicago is still 3-5 and one of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Bears are 23rd in points per game and 27th in yards per game. On the flip side, the Dolphins – under Tua Tagovailoa – feature one of the league’s best offenses. Defensively, the Bears just lost their best player, Roquan Smith, while the Dolphins added edge rusher Bradley Chubb at the trade deadline. On paper, the Dolphins should be favored by far more than 4.5; it feels like the Bears are getting a bit too much of a homefield edge. They shouldn’t be, as the forecast on Sunday calls for a fairly mild, fall day in Chicago. 

Steve Quinne’s pick: Miami -4.5 (-110)

P.M. Leg

With only two afternoon games on the slate this weekend, the options are somewhat limited. The Seattle-Arizona game could be fun, but nothing we trust in terms of betting your hard-earned dough. The same can be said of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have been a loser for most bettors all season. Everyone expects the Bucs to snap out of their funk every week, and they just don’t. But… one thing is fairly safe when it comes to betting on Tampa Bay: They keep it ugly. Specifically, the Bucs defense has yet to allow anyone to pass all over them. And Matthew Stafford isn’t about to be the first. The highest passing total the Bucs defense has allowed this season is 248 yards (against Aaron Rodgers in Week 3). Stafford’s season passing yards per game comes in right at 252 yards. The Bucs will keep it ugly, and Stafford won’t be better than average on a cross-country road trip. 

Steve Quinne’s pick: Matthew Stafford UNDER 247.5 passing yards (-115)

SNF Leg

Sunday night should be a rude awakening for the seemingly red-hot Titans. Few teams win in Kansas City in November. Few teams beat Andy Reid after a bye. Besides, the Chiefs aren’t about to forget about last season’s embarrassing loss in Tennessee. Here’s betting that the Chiefs would love nothing more than to return the favor. They’ll win big and you will too.  

Steve Quinne’s pick: Kansas City -12.5 (-110)

Sunday Checklist

Last minute musts before a blissful day of football

1. Marc Ross and Steve Quinne don’t necessarily agree on Chicago-Miami
2. If this doesn’t describe YOUR team, we don’t know what does.
3. Will Sauce get cooked by the Bills?
4. Derrick Henry is good to go.
5. It’s official. And here’s what Tom had to say.