SuperBook Sports previews Wild Card Weekend

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

How on earth are the Pittsburgh Steelers in the postseason? They’ve played three quarterbacks this season, a trio that has combined to throw just 13 touchdown passes. Yet somehow, Mike Tomlin willed this team to a 10-7 record and a wild-card berth.

Things won’t be easy for the Steelers, however. They have to travel to western New York to take on a Bills team that is red hot.

Buffalo finished 11-6, winning its last five games to go from the outside looking in on the playoff picture to atop the AFC East. Nobody is playing better football at the moment, as the Bills have been playing pressure-packed games for more than a month.

They’ve been carried by their offense, which is ranked fourth overall in the NFL. Josh Allen has had a remarkable season, throwing for 4,306 yards and 29 touchdowns. The quarterback has also rushed for another 15 scores.

But Allen isn’t all of Buffalo’s ground attack. James Cook has emerged as a bona fide workhorse, rushing for 1,122 yards on the season. He’ll need to help on Sunday, as Pittsburgh’s defense can be stingy.

The Steelers are middle of the pack overall on that side of the ball, but they only give up 19.1 points per game. That’s sixth best in the NFL, which has kept them in games.

Pittsburgh averages just 17.9 points per game, which is fifth worst in the league. They’re the only team in the league with a negative point differential, having surrendered 20 more than the put on the board this season. By contrast, the Bills are +140 on the season.

Barring something strange, the Steelers will have a hard time keeping up. The hot streak will continue in Buffalo.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Buffalo -9.5

A double-digit line in the playoffs is big, but it feels appropriate. How can the Steelers and their anemic offense keep up with a Bills attack that is rolling? They can’t. Buffalo beat Dallas by 21; they’ll do about the same to a much-lesser Pittsburgh team.

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys weren’t supposed to win the NFC East. At least not heading into December, when the Philadelphia Eagles sat atop the division with a 10-1 mark. Fast forward six weeks, however, and things had changed.

The Cowboys won three of their last five games to finish 12-5. The Eagles collapsed down the stretch, losing five of their last six to end the season at 11-6. Consequently, Dallas wound up with the No. 2 seed in the NFC, giving them a much-clearer path to the Super Bowl.

There are plenty of people who still don’t believe in the Cowboys, however. Recent playoff failures have plenty of people spooked about Dallas in the postseason.

The last two years have ended in heartbreaking fashion for Mike McCarthy’s team. They fell at home to the 49ers in the 2021 playoffs, with the game ending on a questionable quarterback draw call as the clock expired. Last season, they also lost to San Francisco, with the game coming to a close on a strange formation that resulted in an ugly pass to Ezekial Elliott.

Will this year be different? The oddsmakers seem to think so. At least for now.

The Cowboys enter their showdown with the Packers as a 7.0-point favorite. They’re favored by a touchdown for a reason.

Dallas has the fifth-ranked offense in the NFL this season. On the other side of the ball, the defense is also at No. 5. The Cowboys are arguably the most-balanced team in the postseason.

On the other side, Green Bay is just happy to be in the playoffs. During Jordan Love’s first season as the team’s starting QB, the Packers went 9-8 to earn the final postseason spot in the NFC. That’s a huge accomplishment for a young quarterback and an inexperienced roster.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Dallas -7.0

Dallas has won 12 games this season, nine of which came by more than a touchdown. They’ve been blowing people out all season, especially at home. While racking up a perfect 8-0 mark at AT&T Stadium, the Cowboys have won by an average of 19.1 points per game. That will continue on Sunday afternoon.

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

The NFL isn’t scripted, but sometimes it feels that way. What better way to wrap up an eventful Sunday of Wild Card Weekend than Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit?

The former No. 1 overall pick in 2009 spent 12 seasons with the Lions, before eventually getting traded to the Rams and winning a Super Bowl. Stafford was 0-3 in the playoffs as Detroit’s QB, but he’s not alone in a long list of postseason failures in the Motor City.

The franchise hasn’t hosted a playoff game since the 1993 season and hasn’t won one since the 1991 season. They broke the curse of finally winning a division title for the first time in 30 years, but up next is winning and advancing in the playoffs. It’s ironic that it’ll be Stafford trying to prevent them from doing that, but it’s what makes this sport so great. It’s always full of drama.

And the Lions are darn good. They finished the regular season 12-5, including a 6-2 record at Ford Field, and with wins over playoff teams like the Chiefs, Packers and Buccaneers during the regular season. They also should’ve beaten the Cowboys in Week 17, but a bogus flag on a two-point conversion stole that from them.

Head coach Dan Campbell is one of the most colorful characters in the league, and he’s got an offense loaded with talent. Quarterback Jared Goff, who many thought was a throw-in in the Stafford trade, threw for more than 4,500 yards and tossed 30 touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a top-five WR in the NFL, as he had a ridiculous 1,515 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.

Also catching 10 TDs was rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, but bettors will need to keep a close eye on his status as he’s battling a knee injury. The rushing attack might be the best two-headed monster in the league, as David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for an absurd 23 touchdowns on the ground. Montgomery eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards on the season, while Gibbs came up just short with 945.

The Rams defense isn’t the same as the one that won the Super Bowl just two years ago. They’ll have their hands full in this one.

But the Los Angeles offense is also stacked, and that’s what makes this game so appetizing. Stafford threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns, proving even at age 35 there’s still plenty left in the tank. Rookie WR Puka Nacua is flat out special, catching 1,486 receiving yards and six touchdowns. He actually broke the rookie record for most yards in a season, getting just enough in Week 18 before taking a seat on the bench. Former Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp is also still in the fold, catching a respectable 59 passes for 737 yards and five touchdowns in just 12 games. And at running back, Kyren Williams came out of nowhere to rush for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns, also in only 12 games.

Even if this turns into a shootout, the Rams have the weapons to keep up. This is an L.A. team that had low expectations coming into the season, but they’ve overachieved. At 10-7, they went a respectable 5-4 on the road, and also lost to one of the championship favorites in the Ravens in Baltimore. That game went to OT.

They’re not scared of anyone and are maybe the hottest team in the NFL. The Rams are 7-1 over their last eight games, with that only defeat coming at the hands of the Ravens. That’s a darn good resume entering the playoffs, as it’s not only about being the best, it’s about having momentum. 

Steve Quinne’s pick: Los Angeles ML (+145)

It’s hard to say a city is cursed, but until the Lions win another playoff game, it’s difficult to bet on it happening. Particularly with the Rams being on fire and the tortured history in Detroit. Goff is a veteran, but this is still a relatively young team. They might have to learn from a loss in the postseason before they can figure out how to win. And don’t forget that Aaron Donald still plays for the Los Angeles defense. He had “only” eight sacks in the regular season, but demanded plenty of double teams and can still wreck a game. Head coach Sean McVay has a championship ring and has made the biggest game in sports twice. He knows how to go on a deep playoff run, and even with a very different roster than the one he had 24 months ago, is poised to do it again. Not only do the Rams cover the field goal spread, they find a way to win outright by a final score of 28-27.