“There’s no doubt this year is different!” says Jay Kornegay, chief oddsmaker for SuperBook Sports. “We always feel electricity when it’s Super Bowl time, but you can feel the extra juice this year. The atmosphere is like a heavyweight championship fight. No matter where you go, it’s vibrant and you know something special is about to happen. Las Vegas was built for this, and we certainly have our ‘A-Game’ ready.”

And the matchup could not be more fitting. It’s star-studded, too.

The San Francisco 49ers are back in the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2019 season. Their opponent last time around was none other than the Kansas City Chiefs, who they’ll face again on Sunday.

Four years later, they find themselves in the exact same position. This time, they hope for a different result.

Some things have remained the same since that 2019 run. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa have remained cornerstones of the team, and Kyle Shanahan is still the head coach. But other aspects of the roster have changed in big ways. Since that 2019 season they have gained two players by the names of Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, both of which are up for MVP this year.

Purdy and McCaffrey have very different NFL stories. McCaffrey was picked eighth overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, while Purdy was the last pick in the draft in 2022.

Purdy was drafted by the 49ers with almost no shot to ever become the starting quarterback and McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers in October of 2022 for a multitude of draft picks. Nonetheless, they are both valuable players on this 49ers roster and are eyeing their first ever Super Bowl victories.

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San Francisco’s last Super Bowl win came all the way back in the 1994 season, nearly 30 years ago. It was Super Bowl XXIX in which the 49ers beat the San Diego Chargers 49-26. Another title has been long overdue for the Bay Area and they have a chance to spoil a back-to-back championship run for the Chiefs.

It’s also a full circle moment for the Shanahan and McCaffrey families as there will now be two generations who have either coached or played in the Super Bowl. Ed McCaffrey and Mike Shanahan were a part of Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII and now their sons will be a part of Super Bowl LVIII some 25 years later.

Against the Spread (San Francisco -2.0)

The line for this game is currently set at 2.0 in favor of the 49ers. Vegas oddsmakers are picking Mr. Irrelevant to outduel the undisputed best quarterback in the league, Patrick Mahomes, on Super Bowl Sunday. It’s a bold pick but it might be the right one.

“We opened at San Francisco -2.5 and the entire market adjusted downward to -1.0,” says Kornegay. “At that point, we started seeing 49er money which drove the line back up to two. We continued to see more and bumped it up to -2.5 and have been there for almost a week without any further movement. The total opened at 47.5 and has remained at that number.”

The moneyline is currently -130 for San Francisco. That line has moved up since it opened when it was set at -120. Either way you slice it, moneyline at -130 or point spread at -2.0, the payout will be more than enough if the 49ers come out on top.

The point spread is low enough that even a game-winning field goal would win the bet, which feels highly possible in this razor-close game. The moneyline is the safer option but the spread at -110 yields a little more money for nearly the same amount of risk.

49ers Keys to Victory…

The 49ers will need both sides of the ball to show up in this one. But in particular, they need their offense to shine. Kornegay believes if the Niners run the ball effectively, the Lombardi Trophy is theirs to raise.

But that could be easier said than done. Kansas City’s defense has been on fire of late, giving up just 13.6 points per game in their three playoff games. They have played some explosive offenses in that stretch, as well. The Dolphins, Bills and Ravens are all top-six in the league in PPG. But the 49ers offense certainly has the capability to score points on this defense. San Francisco has the second-best offense in the league, scoring 28.9 PPG. They have scored 26.0 PPG throughout their 2 playoff games.

An offense made up of McCaffrey, Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Kittle has to show up in order to beat this Chiefs team. Additionally, Kornegay says that if Deebo Samuel is healthy – which he believes to be the case – he’s not only key, but a prop bet to consider.

“(Deebo) should play a big part in the offensive strategy,” Kornegay says. “I’ll take the over on 59.5 receiving yards for him.”

However, the Niners defense needs to show up, as well. Kornegay believes that if San Francisco can force two or more turnovers, it could be too much for even the Chiefs to overcome.

While the Chiefs didn’t have a banner year in terms of offensive production and have struggled in the playoffs, they are still the Chiefs. They find ways to win. Last week, they didn’t score a single second half point and still won the game by a touchdown.

The 49ers main key to victory though is to start strong. Against the Green Bay Packers, they had to overcome a 21-14 deficit in the fourth quarter and last week against the Lions, they had to once again make a comeback, this time from 17 points down. So, while it’s nice to know they certainly have that capability, they may not have the same sort of luck against the Chiefs.

The 49ers Lose If…

Brock Purdy has proven a lot, but this is his chance to really cement his legacy. If he lays an egg, it doesn’t matter what pieces are around him, winning a game against the Chiefs will be an even tougher task.

But the defense has just as important of a role as the offense. Making Patrick Mahomes uncomfortable has to be a priority. If he stands in the pocket all day, the Chiefs offense will be nearly impossible to stop. Look at what the Buccaneers did the year they were able to beat Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Mahomes was under duress the entire game and it led to them not scoring a single touchdown.

Finally, the 49ers have to keep it close. As mentioned before, this is not the game to fall behind in. Falling behind by more than one possession could be all that the Chiefs need to pull it off. It’s likely that San Francisco will trail for at least some portion of the game, but answering back will be a big area of focus.

Bud Parmalee’s Suggested Play: San Francisco 49ers -2.0 (-110)

The point spread and moneyline bets are almost even in this game with the spread being -110 and the moneyline being -130. While it is certainly possible for this game to be decided by one or two points, it’s highly unlikely. If you like the 49ers to win, take the chances on the spread for the little bit of extra dough.

The storylines are there for both teams, but it just makes sense for the 49ers. McCaffrey and Shanahan are back in the Super Bowl, this time with different first names. The 49ers haven’t won since 1994 and most of all, it’s a revenge game. 49ers players that were on that roster have felt the feeling of losing a Super Bowl, more specifically to the very team they will play on Sunday.

That feeling is not something they want to feel again, and there’s something to like about the 49ers getting their revenge for four years ago. And that’s just one of the redemption storylines.

The last pick in the draft winning a Super Bowl just two years after being selected as Mr. Irrelevant is an amazing story. It really doesn’t get better than that.

The 49ers have more talent, better stats and have had the better season up to this point. The Chiefs are proven, but the 49ers have been knocking on the door for quite some time. It’s time they get their sixth trophy and put an end to the Chiefs reign.

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Jay Kornegay’s Final Say:  San Francisco -2.0 (-110)

“It’s going to be a tough game and expect a few big plays deciding the outcome. I have all the respect in the world for Mahomes and Reid but feel like San Francisco has the overall better team – but not by much. 49ers 27-20.”