“There’s no doubt this year is different!” says Jay Kornegay, chief oddsmaker for SuperBook Sports. “We always feel electricity when it’s Super Bowl time, but you can feel the extra juice this year. The atmosphere is like a heavyweight championship fight. No matter where you go, it’s vibrant and you know something special is about to happen. Las Vegas was built for this, and we certainly have our ‘A-Game’ ready.”

And the matchup could not be more fitting. It’s star-studded, too.

The Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) once again find themselves playing in the Super Bowl. This year’s big game is a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, as the Chiefs will look to get the best of San Francisco just a few seasons removed from winning their first title of the Patrick Mahomes era.

This is only the eighth time in NFL history that two teams have played each other in the big game multiple times. However, the dynamics for each team have changed considerably since their last Super Bowl showdown.

When Mahomes became the starting quarterback in Kansas City, the Chiefs offense was pass-heavy and constantly beating teams down the field. Mahomes and the offense are still dangerous, but their explosiveness is not entirely as it was at the beginning of his career.

That is not necessarily a bad thing. It is merely an evolution of the Chiefs, and it’s working as they are back in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons.

The Mahomes-Andy Reid dynamic is starting to resemble a dynasty, as the Chiefs have been in an AFC Championship Game every season since Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback; that’s six-straight years. A victory in Super Bowl LVIII would be the third title of the current era of Chiefs football and would put them in the conversation with the Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots regarding sustained dominance.

The Super Bowl is the biggest sporting event in the world and a favorite amongst casual and professional bettors alike. From a betting perspective, let’s see how the Kansas City Chiefs stack up against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII…

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There are merely six offensive players who touched the ball four years ago in Super Bowl LIV that are still on their respective teams, speaking to the overhaul both franchises have endured since they last met in the big game.

The six players include Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk. All six of these players are still vital components to the modern version of the teams, but there are also a lot of new faces that will undoubtedly impact how both squads build their game plans.

Against the Spread (Kansas City +2.0)

This game is close to a pick ’em, with the 49ers being short favorites at -2.0 against the spread (ATS) and -125 on the moneyline. The Chiefs are slight underdogs, listed at +105 on the moneyline as of this writing.

The Chiefs opened as +120 underdogs, but a considerable amount of action has come in on them leading up to the game, driving the price down. For context, Kansas City opened as slight favorites for last year’s Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles, but ended up closing as an underdog. It’s only the third time in Super Bowl history that the defending champions were priced as an underdog in the big game in the following season.

“We opened at San Francisco -2.5 and the entire market adjusted downward to -1.0,” says Kornegay. “At that point, we started seeing 49er money which drove the line back up to two. We continued to see more and bumped it up to -2.5 and have been there for almost a week without any further movement. The total opened at 47.5 and has remained at that number.”

With the line settling at San Francisco -2.0, bettors could look to back the defending champions in a couple of different ways. Taking the points at -110 is an interesting wager to consider with Kansas City.

On one hand, bettors can get points with Mahomes and this dynamic Chiefs’ defense, which is never a bad thing. On the other hand, the line is below the key number of three, meaning bettors would need the Chiefs to either win the game outright or lose by one point in order to cash their tickets.

Should the 49ers win the game by a field goal, Chiefs’ backers would lose their wagers. With that, if you like the Chiefs in the game, the moneyline could be a more enticing option at +105.

Chiefs Keys to Victory…

The Chiefs path to victory starts with slowing down the potent 49ers offense. San Francisco ranked second in yards per game (398.4) and third in points per game on average, posting 28.9 during the regular season.

That said, the 49ers have not looked quite as explosive of late. They are still averaging 29.0 points per game, but their average yards per game has dropped considerably compared to their regular season numbers (251.5).

Kornegay sees it as a simple equation: “The Chiefs will win the game if the 49ers can’t run the ball.”

Regardless, this 49ers offense is nothing to sleep on. Sure, Brock Purdy has looked shaky at times, but he’s proved to remain cool, calm and collected when the pressure is cranked up.

The 49ers beat the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in come-from-behind fashion to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. Purdy’s job is rather simplified with the influence of Kyle Shanahan’s system and the spruce of talent around him at prominent skill positions with guys like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Ayiuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffery.

Mahomes is Mahomes, and he will keep the Chiefs in this game as long as the defense can do its part and continue to play like one of the best units in the league.

The Chiefs Lose If…

The Kansas City Chiefs defense finished the regular season ranking second in total yards per game (322.7) and points per game (13.7) on average. Through their three playoff games, Kansas City has allowed 41 points.

That said, this will surely be their most challenging task to date. Between the extra game preparation and various offensive weapons, the 49ers can beat teams in multiple ways.

Are the 49ers slow starts in the playoffs a sign of things to come in the Super Bowl? Or has head coach Kyle Shanahan managed to diagnose and fix the lags within the 49ers offensive scheme?

Either way, if the 49ers get back to their explosive ways on offense, it will be hard for Kansas City to keep up. This version of the Chiefs is not built to keep pace in a shootout-style game.

Their struggles at wide receiver are well-documented, and their offense has been middle-of-the-pack this season, ranking ninth and 15^th in yards and points per game on average, respectively. In recent memory, this is far from the best version of the Chiefs offense. Furthermore, there are several players on the injury report, including defensive end Chris Jones and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed.

Kornegay believes the Chiefs must avoid turnovers. Two or more, he believes, and the Chiefs will lose.

Steve Quinne’s Suggested Play: Kansas City Chiefs ML (+105)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? While the Chiefs have taken a step back on offense this season, they have balanced things out by raising the floor of their defense. On top of that, despite the lackluster returns from the offense at times, the Chiefs still have the best quarterback in the NFL and a massive advantage compared to the 49ers.

No disrespect to Purdy, but Mahomes is trending to be one of the best quarterbacks of all-time. The only Super Bowl and AFC Championship Games he has lost in his career were to teams led by Tom Brady and Joe Burrow.

Kornegay has an interesting twist – food for thought for props bettors.

“I think the 49ers are quick enough at linebacker and edge to contain Mahomes rushing yards,” he says. “I would take under Mahomes rushing yards of 27.5”

Still, Mahomes is the ultimate equalizer and is beyond capable of making something out of nothing. So long as Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco are on their game, Mahomes should be able to pick and choose his spots against this 49ers defense.

What’s the old saying? Defense wins championships. The Chiefs currently have a championship-caliber defense.

The cherry on top for backing Kansas City is their experience in the big game. Andy Reid and company have been there and done that, as they’ve appeared in four of the last five Super Bowls. We know this team understands how to handle the moment, and the same cannot be said for the 49ers. San Francisco is an excellent team in their own right, but they choked away Super Bowl LIV against this very franchise.

Furthermore, Shanahan was one of the architects behind the Atlanta Falcons 28-3 blown lead in Super Bowl LI. Sure, the 49ers are the more talented team on paper, but the Chiefs have the advantage between the ears. All signs point to the Kansas City Chiefs winning yet another Super Bowl.

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Jay Kornegay’s Final Say:  San Francisco -2.0 (-110)

“It’s going to be a tough game and expect a few big plays deciding the outcome. I have all the respect in the world for Mahomes and Reid but feel like San Francisco has the overall better team – but not by much. 49ers 27-20.”