No Ja, No Problem?

Memphis Grizzlies to win Southwest Division +250

If there’s one thing true about the 2023-24 Memphis Grizzlies, it’s that they’re a mystery. A great unknown. A book in which the last chapter is far from written.

How could a team that’s won 51 or more games in each of the last two years, earning the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference Finals, be sitting at +250 to win what looks to be a fairly pedestrian division? In what world are the Zion-less(?) Pelicans (+140) or the Counting-on-Kyrie Mavericks (+190) any more reliable than the Grizzlies?

Now, that’s not a full-steam-ahead endorsement of the Grizzlies to win the Southwest, but let’s be honest, they’re no bigger of a mess than anyone else in the Southwest – a division that’s stuffed full of question marks.

Sure, Ja Morant is out for 25 games. Sure, the Grizzlies fizzled mightily in the first round of the playoffs. Sure Dillon Brooks departed for Houston. And, well, sure Ja Morant will still play 57 games. And sure, new acquisitions Marcus Smart and Derrick Rose might just have enough experience and leadership to guide this young wild bunch. And sure, Steven Adams is still in Memphis.

The Grizzlies are a mixed bag, so let’s take a look at how they should be wagered.

What to like about the Grizzlies…

• Perhaps it’s less about liking the Grizzlies as much as it is expecting trouble on the horizon for the teams that might stand in their way. The Pelicans are a perennial disappointment lacking (far too often) the guy who’s supposed to be their savior (aka, nobody should bet on Zion Williamson to stay healthy). It might be premature to say that the Mavericks addition of Kyrie Irving was a complete disaster, but it might not be totally unfair, either. One of these teams has to win the division, and even with Morant missing 25 games, the Grizzlies are just as likely as the other two but come with a better price tag.

• Marcus Smart. Period. The former Celtic is a winner, plain and simple. Furthermore, he’s a defensive juggernaut, something that will greatly help the high flying Grizzlies, particular down the stretch. With Smart donning the green and white, the Celtics won an average of 46 games per season (not counting the Bubble year) and 50 or more four times. Yes, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were the stars, but Smart’s toughness was critical. With the Grizzlies, he’s surrounded by talent as well, and the lessons he learned in Boston should apply in Memphis, too.

What not to like about the Grizzlies…

• Are you a glass-half-full or a glass-half-empty kind of person? Either way, the same thing that’s true of the Pelicans and Mavericks – question marks galore – can be said of the Grizzlies. Morant’s absence. Adams’ health. Whether or not the team is shell-shocked by their early playoff dismissal. There are reasons to doubt Memphis – no question – but only you can decide if they’re a gamble worth taking.

• The Ja Morant saga is concerning at best. Morant is easily one of the most talented players of his generation, but it’s clear he hasn’t been in a good place. There’s a sincere hope that Morant has received the help he needs and that the suspension will help him mature as a person. Then again, this wasn’t his first offense. And even when he comes back, there will be an adjustment period within the lineup. Ultimately, Morant’s presence is a major key to the Grizzlies success, but 25 games – plus 10 more give or take for adjustment – is a lot to overcome. It will be interesting to see where Memphis sits in the standings upon his return.

Jason Schelfsky’s Pick: Memphis to win Southwest Division +250

It might be the NBA’s most dysfunctional division, but somebody has to win it. The addition of Marcus Smart should have a major positive impact on what’s been a young and immature Grizzlies team. Is that enough? At +250, it’s worth a roll of the dice that Smart is the subtle but necessary missing ingredient.