Anyone’s AFC?

Can the Ravens represent the AFC in the Super Bowl (at +550)?

At the midway point of the NFL season, is there anything more up for grabs than the American Football Conference?

And it’s nothing like everyone thought, either. Yes, the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are still the favorites (+240). But the Bengals (+800) – a popular preseason choice – look suspect; the Bills (+700) – everyone’s favorite for years now – have been a mixed bag this season.

Then there’s your Ravens. Is it us, or are the Ravens not getting the respect they deserve, even at +550? Remember back before the season began, back when the Ravens win-total was set at 10.0? That number felt low then and feels even lower now, as they’ve only got four more wins to go with nine games to do it.

Behind MVP hopeful Lamar Jackson the Ravens always have a shot, but this season has been marked by a dominant defense, as the Baltimore D has allowed fewer points than any other team in the AFC.

Tied with the Chiefs, Dolphins and Jaguars for the most wins in the conference, what kind of shot do the Ravens have at winning the AFC? Let’s assess.

What to like about the Ravens to win the AFC…

• As easy as it is to lean on the should-be MVP, Lamar Jackson may not be the reason the Ravens have a great shot this year. Instead, Baltimore is leaning on one of its best defenses in years. In fact, the Ravens might have the best defense in the NFL. Baltimore ranks first in points allowed per game (15.1), second in yards allowed per game (276.5) and third in passing yards allowed per game (176.6). The Ravens aren’t winning anything without Jackson, but if his defense continues to play this well, there’s no reason they won’t be playing in the Super Bowl.   

• The AFC “blue bloods” have issues. Despite what the odds say, it doesn’t appear as if any of the usual suspects are ready to run away with anything. Kansas City looked sloppy in a loss to the the lowly Broncos last week (and not much better two weeks before against the same 3-5 Denver team). The Bills almost look tired, like a team that’s worn down by their annual expectations. The Bengals might have Joe Cool, but their 4-3 record has them in the basement of the North. If anyone appears to be trending upward, it’s the Ravens, Dolphins and Jaguars – new teams in the discussion for AFC supremacy.  

What not to like about the Ravens to win the AFC…

• Nobody in Baltimore wants to read this, so feel free to skip ahead, as you likely know what’s about to be written. As great as Lamar Jackson is, his playing style makes him a liability. By the end of a 17-game season, plus the playoff gauntlet, what are the odds that Jackson remains healthy? There’s nothing any good NFL fan wants to see more than a healthy Jackson in the conference championship game – What could be more electric? – but getting there in one piece hasn’t always been easy. Jackson has endured no less than five injuries in his five seasons in the NFL; he’s missed five games each of the past two seasons, including the final handful of 2022 (which includes a wild-card loss to the Bengals). Jackson is as tough and dangerous as any quarterback ever, but his durability definitely factors into the Ravens odds of winning.

• In the AFC, it’s a gauntlet. Just as it’s fair to say that none of the traditional powers in the conference appear to be dominant, it’s also fair to say that the top of the mountain looks pretty crowded at the midway point. Not only are the Chiefs and Bills still there, but Miami and Jacksonville have added to the challenge. Perhaps there’s not a clear cut favorite, but the Chiefs no how to win in the postseason, the Bills have to be hungrier than ever, the Dolphins have one of the most dynamic offenses the league has ever seen and the Jaguars look like a team that’s on a trajectory toward becoming an annual contender; plus in the lackluster AFC South, there’s a good chance they can swipe homefield advantage. It’s anyone’s conference to win – including the Ravens – but it won’t be easy for any of them. 

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Baltimore Ravens to win AFC +550

Forget, for a moment, the odds. Let’s just rank them as I see them as we charge into November: 1) Miami, 2) Baltimore, 3) Kansas City, 4) Buffalo, 5) Jacksonville. Now, if you’re so inclined to agree, go consult your app and decide what prices seem worth the gamble. At +550, Baltimore certainly screams “great value.” Not far behind are the Dolphins at +450. The edge, however, goes to Baltimore simply because of its defense. But remember, if Jackson isn’t healthy, don’t bet on the Ravens.