Snakes Alive?

World Series Game 4: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+175); Diamondbacks M/L (-105); OVER +9.5 (+100)  

Down 2-1, Game 4 of the World Series is a must win for the Diamondbacks in the desert. Even though the next two games are slated for Chase Field, being down 3-1 against a deadly Rangers lineup would feel insurmountable. As such, the Arizona’s backs are against the wall.

The Diamondbacks cruised to sweeps in the NLWCS and NLDS over the Brewers and Dodgers respectively. It wasn’t until the NLCS against the Phillies that the D’Backs were tested. Facing elimination after losing Game 5 at home, Arizona impressively and unexpectedly stole the next two games in Philadelphia to punch their ticket to the Fall Classic.

Tonight’s Game 4 represents an even bigger test, as the history isn’t pretty; teams who take a 3-1 advantage in best-of-seven series have won nearly 85% of those series. Entering the 2023 postseason, only 14 teams (out of 92) have come back to win a best-of-seven series after dropping three of the first four contests. In the World Series, only six teams have done it, the most recent example coming in 2016 when the Cubs miraculously emerged victorious from Cleveland after beating the Indians 8-7 in 10 innings in Game 7. Like the Diamondbacks, the Cubs did not hold home field advantage to begin the series. Those same Cubs lost Game 4 at home, something the Diamondbacks are desperately trying to avoid.

Can the Snakes even things up at two-games-apiece? Let’s assess.

What to like about the Diamondbacks in Game 4…

• The prevailing notion heading into Game 4 is that the outcome will be decided by each team’s bullpen. And for Arizona, that’s a good thing. On paper, the D’Backs have a better bullpen, but there’s more to the story. Last night’s Rangers win might have come at some expense, as starter Max Scherzer was pulled after three innings with back spasms causing Texas manager Bruce Bochy to call on his bullpen much sooner than expected. Luckily for the Rangers, Jon Gray turned in a stellar three-inning, one-hit, no-runs performance, limiting the potential toll on the Texas bullpen. Still, Arizona’s pen should be fresher heading into Game 4.

• Adolis Garcia, one of the Rangers most dangerous weapons, left Game 3 with “side tightness.” As of Tuesday morning, his status was listed as day-to-day, but even if Garcia finds a way to play, there will be questions surrounding his health. Garcia left the game in obvious pain following his third at bat. While Texas has a deep and dangerous lineup, if the D’Backs can avoid facing a healthy Garcia in the three-spot, that’s one less threat.  

• While neither starter in tonight’s game – Andrew Heaney for the Rangers and Joe Mantiply for the D’Backs – would be considered dominant, a slight edge falls on the Arizona side of the ledger. Mantiply is 2-0 in the postseason with an ERA of 4.26. Meanwhile, Heaney hasn’t been as sharp, pitching six innings and posting an ERA of 6.0.

What not to like about the Diamondbacks in Game 4…

• The Rangers can flat out hit. Even if Garcia can’t go, there’s plenty of firepower within the Texas lineup. Corey Seager and Adolis García are simply mashing, slugging above .620. Evan Carter, Mitch Garver and Josh Jung are also slugging above .530, so with or without Garcia, cooling off the Rangers red-hot bats is no easy task.

• Despite the fact that Bochy taxed his bullpen more than he’d have liked in Game 3, closer Jose Leclerc only had to throw 16 total pitches. Leclerc has been outstanding in the postseason, logging 14 strikeouts in 13.1 innings pitched; he should be relatively fresh if he’s called upon to close out Game 4.

• Did the bats cool off in the desert? Arizona’s six hits in Game 3 – a game in which they faced the Rangers bullpen in six innings – marks their lowest hit total since Game 2 against the Phillies in the NLSC (when they posted just four). Granted, the D’Backs responded with a nine-hit performance (and a win) in Game 3, but last night’s low output might be a concern.

Richard DeMala’s Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+175) and/or OVER 9.5 (+100)

Game 4 has the makings of an old-fashioned shootout in the wild, wild west. As both teams turn to their bottom tier starters, the bats should come alive, making the over a smart play regardless of who comes out on top. And if you’re betting on the outcome, take the Diamondbacks, a team that’s shown remarkable resilience all postseason long (just ask the still-shocked Phillies). Jump on the D’backs to cover the 1.5 spread ASAP, as that plus-number pricetag may not last long.