SuperBook Sports previews Wild Card Weekend

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 during the regular season, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers posted a 9-8 mark. But because the NFL rewards division winners, this game will be played in Florida.

Based on the direction the two teams are trending, however, maybe that’s appropriate. The No. 5 seed Eagles stumbled to the finish line, going just 1-5 over their last six games to waste an incredible 10-1 start and blow a shot at the NFC East title. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers rallied from a 4-7 mark to win five of their last six games and capture yet another NFC South crown.

This one came without Tom Brady under center, but former No. 1 overall pick turned journeyman Baker Mayfield did a nice job of steadying the ship in a year that many thought would be a rebuilding one in Tampa. They won the league’s weakest division and get to host a playoff game.

How much does momentum matter in the NFL postseason and how much of it is a clean slate for all 14 teams that make the dance? This will be a good game to answer that question. 

Philly didn’t have a hangover after losing a heartbreaking Super Bowl to the Chiefs a year ago, as they came out of the gates fast. Jalen Hurts appeared to be an early MVP candidate with an offense that featured wideouts A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert and running back D’Andre Swift. All of them finished the year with very respectable numbers, but the skid is hard to ignore.

Yes, Brown and Smith both eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards and Swift 1,000 rushing yards, but some of the losses in December were flat out ugly. They got blasted by the 49ers 42-19, blitzed by the Cowboys 33-13 and suffered inexcusable defeats in Weeks 17 and 18 to the very bad Cardinals and Giants. When they played good teams, they lost big. When they squared off against squads with nothing to play for, they also lost.

The Eagles only win since November came in a 33-25 battle at home against a New York Giants team that finished 6-11. It’s impossible to ignore their struggles heading into the playoffs, as a once promising campaign has gone south. One victory could propel them on another Super Bowl, because they are that talented. One loss could lead to some hard decisions and potentially major changes this offseason.

The Bucs are a scrappy bunch that has fought hard to get to this point. It’s easy to rally around Mayfield, who looked like his career could be hanging in the balance this time last year. He threw for more than 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns, hooking up with star wideout Mike Evans for nearly half of those (13 total TDs). All Evans does is put up 1,000-yard seasons, as the future Hall of Famer did it again with 1,255 yards on 79 catches in 2023.

Chris Godwin also eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark, going for 1,024 of his own. On the ground, Rachaad White had a productive season, rushing for 990 yards and six touchdowns. Tampa Bay won’t wow you on offense, but they do have enough playmakers to keep up.

Their defense has been stout as of late, shutting out the Panthers in Week 18, giving up just 12 points to the Jaguars in Week 16 and holding opponents to 20 or fewer points in four of their last six games.

Tampa Bay did lose to Philadelphia at home earlier this season by a final score of 25-11, but that was all the way back in Week 3. It’s not a result to be ignored, but also not one to be weighed heavily given that it occurred in September.

The Bucs won the Super Bowl three years ago and played in playoff games each the last two seasons. Yes, that was with Brady, but plenty of guys still on this roster have postseason experience. That’s not to be discounted, as the lights won’t be too bright on a Monday-night showdown to close out Wild Card Weekend.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Tampa Bay ML (+140)

The Eagles can say all the right things, but when a locker room fractures, it’s hard to repair it in January. There’s been drama around Brown, plus he, Hurts, Smith and Swift are all battling various ailments. They should gut through it and play, but no one would argue Philadelphia is healthy right now or has any sort of chemistry. For whatever reason, this looks like a group divided, perhaps ready to head to a beach come Tuesday morning. They lost both coordinators from the Super Bowl team a year ago en route to becoming head coaches elsewhere, and it’s abundantly clear they miss Jonathan Gannon and Shane Steichen. Head coach Nick Sirianni is still respected around the league, but he’s missing his two right-hand men. The slow heartbeat of Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles is good for his team, as he doesn’t let them get too high or low. Look for Mayfield and Evans to capitalize on a couple of big plays, White to help bleed the clock and the Buccaneers to send the Eagles home way too early with a 20-17 victory.