SuperBook Sports previews the College Football Playoffs

CFP National Championship: (1) Michigan vs. (2) Washington

The national championship is on the line in Houston, with two programs starved for the most important trophy in college football. Michigan last won the whole thing in 1997 and Washington in 1991.

Back then, the systems for determining a winner were messy, with the Huskies technically splitting the title with the Miami Hurricanes. There will be no such scenario on Monday night at NRG Stadium, as either Michigan or Washington will leave an undisputed champion with the loser coming oh-so-close to ending a long drought. 

And this is the way it should be, right? Both the Wolverines and Huskies enter the game undefeated and both took care of one-loss teams in their respective semifinals. Michigan won a thriller over Alabama in the Rose Bowl, a 27-20 overtime victory that featured a dramatic comeback in regulation and a key fourth-down conversion in its own territory. Washington almost gagged the Sugar Bowl late against Texas but held on with a fourth-down stop with one second left, escaping with a 37-31 win.

The nation was treated to two unbelievable games on New Year’s Day, and we can only hope this contest is half as good. It’s a showdown of 14-0 squads, and there will be no drama as to who’s the best team in the country. How does it shake out? Let’s dive in…

Michigan -5

What to like about this line…

• If you like the Wolverines to win, you should like them to cover. In all 14 victories this season, they’ve prevailed by at least six points. In fact, they’ve won by double-digits an impressive 10 times and held their opponent to single digits eight times. The defense is that good, and J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum can both carry the offense. In the thrilling win over the Crimson Tide, it was McCarthy throwing the game-tying touchdown with 1:34 to go in the fourth quarter and Corum getting all 25 yards on the ground in overtime for the only points of the extra session. Even more impressive, Corum did it on just two carries, gaining eight on the first one then scampering for a 17-yard TD on the next play. And the defense came up big when it had to, keeping Alabama out of field goal range in the final seconds of regulation then stuffing Bama QB Jalen Milroe near the goal-line in OT to walk-off winners. Finally getting a playoff win had to feel great for Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines, and now with the monkey off their back against an all-time great like Nick Saban, they have to feel like they can take the whole thing.

What not to like about this line…

• Washington has beaten ranked teams outright in five of their last six games, including when they were underdogs in the last two. They took down a favored Oregon team in the Pac-12 championship by a score of 34-31 and then weren’t scared of Texas by hanging 37 on the Longhorns and doing just enough on defense to hold on. QB Michael Penix Jr. is watching his draft stock go through the roof, and for good reason. He threw for a ridiculous 430 yards against Texas and two touchdowns, completing 29 of 38 passes. The Heisman Trophy finalist dazzled viewers all over the country with his touch and precision on deep passes and there’s now real buzz he could get selected in the top half of the first-round. Running back Dillon Johnson did what he’s done all season, finding the end zone twice while wide receivers Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk both topped 120 yards through the air. The Huskies have posted more than 30 points an absurd 11 times this year, including against both the Ducks and Longhorns. Arguably the best offense in the country, why can’t they cover 5 points? Heck, why can’t they win? They’ve also pulled out each of their last 10 games by 10 points or fewer. Washington plays close games — and they win close games.

Over / Under 56.5 

What to like about the over…

• The Huskies have gone north of this number in five of their last seven games, including 68 combined points with Texas, 65 with Oregon, 63 with Utah, 94 with USC and 75 with Stanford. They’re comfortable playing shootouts and that’s exactly what happened in the Sugar Bowl. Each team scored a touchdown in three of the four quarters and it was a back-and-forth affair. That’s how Penix and the Washington staff is comfortable playing. Meanwhile, Michigan sniffed this number in its biggest regular season game of the season. When it’s two good offenses squaring off, sometimes you can expect both teams to get in a groove. That was the case when Michigan played No. 2 Ohio State, with a 30-24 final just missing out on 56.5 points. Throw in the fact the Wolverines have put up 45 points, 52 points (twice), 49 points and 41 points in games this season, and they have to be licking their chops going against this Washington defense.

What to like about the under…

• To counter what was written above, 12 of Michigan’s 14 games this year have gone under 56.5 points. That’s a staggering number, as you’d expect it to be more like seven, eight or nine. This total is so high because the Washington offense is that dynamic, and the Wolverines can score when they need to. But don’t be fooled, when Michigan is at their best they play well under this number. They beat ranked teams like Iowa 26-0 and Penn State 24-15. If the game plays in their favor, this should go easily under. On the other hand, the Huskies don’t always have to play a barn burner. Just in the month of November they earned close 22-20 and 24-21 wins over Oregon State and Washington State, respectively. Sure, they usually will combine for a total in the 60s and beyond, but there is some evidence they can adapt and play a lower-scoring game. If that’s the case on Monday night, it’s a good reminder that 56.5 points is an awful lot.

Pick: Washington +5

It’s hard to see the Huskies losing by more than a field goal, if they lose at all. It’s in their DNA to play tight football games and, as mentioned, it’s also in their DNA to win them. Penix is on a special run right now, so special in fact that many are wondering if he should’ve indeed won the Heisman Trophy. That’s no disrespect to Jayden Daniels out of LSU, Penix has just been that good. Plus, for as great as Michigan has played, there could be a major distraction looming. Once again Harbaugh is being linked to the NFL, and this could be the season he finally jumps ship back to the pros. He can deny it all he wants, but there’s growing momentum this will be his last game as head coach of the Wolverines. The players in that locker room have phones and social media — they know what’s going on. It probably won’t cost Michigan a national championship, but it’s definitely on everyone’s minds. The Wolverines win another fun one by a final score of 30-27, but 5 points is simply too many.