SuperBook Sports previews tonight’s showdown

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs

How tasty is this matchup on Thanksgiving week? A Super Bowl rematch between the Chiefs and Eagles is the best “Monday Night Football” game of the year and could easily be a preview of the big game in a couple of months as well. 

Both teams look like contenders once again, with Philadelphia sitting atop the NFC with an 8-1 record and Kansas City atop the AFC at 7-2. Both teams will be well rested, coming off their respective byes.

The Eagles are riding a three-game winning streak, defeating their rival Cowboys last time out by a score of 28-23. The Chiefs also topped the Dolphins in Germany in their last game, getting things back on track after a stunning loss to the Broncos.

How does this one shake out? And can Philly get revenge for what happened last February? Let’s find out.

Chiefs -2.5 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• Yes, both rosters look a little different, but almost all the stars remain. And K.C. was able to defeat the Eagles in the Super Bowl nine months ago and cover this spread, winning a thriller 38-35. And while Jalen Hurts is a special talent, Patrick Mahomes remains the best player on Earth. Entering the week, he was sixth in the NFL in passing yards and tied for fifth with 17 touchdown passes thrown. While he’s not putting up video game numbers, it’s still silly for anyone to say Mahomes is having a down year. And his favorite target in Travis Kelce is having a huge season, hauling in 597 receiving yards, which is second among all tight ends, and four touchdowns. As long as Mahomes and Kelce are on the field, the Chiefs can beat anyone and cover a small spread. 

• The Chiefs have won three straight home games since a disappointing opening night loss to Detroit, beating the Bears by 31, the Broncos by 11 and Chargers by 14. That’s an average margin of victory of 18.67 points per game at Arrowhead Stadium in that stretch. They’re also 7-1 over their last eight games and won six of those by a touchdown or more. Their wins over the Jaguars and Vikings continue to look better and better, as well as holding a dynamic Miami offense to just 14 points. No opposing QB scares this defense, and they may be Kansas City’s most complete unit. Philadelphia has a dangerous offense, but if anyone can shut them down, it’s the Chiefs.

What not to like about this line…

• The Eagles are 3-1 on the road, and the three victories have all been by at least seven points. They took down the Buccaneers by 14, Rams by nine and Commanders by seven. Playing away from home clearly doesn’t bother them. And after a 5-0 start, one speed bump against the Jets didn’t seem to matter. They took down the Dolphins by two scores and as mentioned also took care of Dallas. Both those teams are Super Bowl contenders, and the Eagles didn’t have a problem beating either. Sandwiched in there was a win in Washington where the Philly offense put 38 points on the board. The Lions are right there in the NFC, so it’s important for the Eagles to get a win and maintain their one-game advantage for homefield advantage in the conference. They’ll be plenty motivated to get the Chiefs back and lay the best path possible for them to return to the biggest game in sports.

• Wide receiver A.J. Brown is an absolute monster, going for more than 100 yards receiving in six of the nine Eagles games this season. He’s also caught six touchdown passes and has two games with multiple scores caught through the air. He’ll be a problem for the Chiefs secondary and could singlehandedly help the Eagles earn this win. On an offense with Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, DeAndre Swift, Brown and Hurts, there’s just an absurd amount of weapons. Kansas City doesn’t have the same firepower they’ve had in previous seasons, so if this game turns into a shootout, it’s possible they can’t keep up with the Eagles. Seeing Philadelphia as an underdog to anyone is a bit shocking, so there’s definitely an argument to be made that you have to take the points when a rare chance like this is presented.

Over / Under 45.5 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• Come on, the last time these two teams were on the field, they combined for 73 points. That enough should be plenty of evidence why to take the over. The Eagles have gone over this number in five of nine games including each of their last three times out. The Chiefs have topped 45.5 three times this season, including 48 combined with the Chargers, 47 with the Vikings and 51 with the Bears. Both offenses are full of stars, so it’s hard to justify betting the under when there are plenty of capable playmakers on both teams. This number feels awfully low — and awfully tempting to jump at.

What to like about the under…

• Kansas City has gone under this number in three of their last four games and six of nine times overall. The Chiefs just aren’t playing many high-scoring games this season, including just 35 points with the Dolphins, 33 with the Broncos, 27 with the Broncos the first time and 26 with the Jaguars. There’s plenty of evidence that this K.C. team isn’t built the same way previous ones have been. Philadelphia has gone under this number in three of their four of their road games, putting up 45 points with the Patriots, 36 with the Buccaneers and 37 with the Rams. That could be a style thing, with the Eagles more comfortable playing lower scoring games away from home. It’s food for thought, as usually when a total is this low, Vegas knows something we don’t. 

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Philadelphia moneyline (+125)

The Chiefs are still very, very good, but the Eagles might be great. They’re clearly on a mission after coming up just short of the ultimate goal a season ago and look to be ultra-motivated. And the Broncos showed that Mahomes and the Chiefs can be human, laying the blueprint for how other teams can beat them. In a battle of the Kelce brothers, it’ll be Jason’s turn to get the bragging rights, even if he doesn’t have the more famous girlfriend. Again, it’s surprising to see the Eagles as underdogs, so jump at this unique opportunity. Philadelphia announces to the rest of the NFL that they’re the team to beat with a 28-24 victory.