SuperBook Sports previews tonight’s showdown

NFL: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Don’t look now, but the Broncos are hot and the Bills are not. Denver has won two in a row, including finally snapping its  miserable 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs the last time out. The Broncos dominated in a 24-9 win and kept Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce out of the end zone.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has not covered a spread in five straight games. The Bills are just 2-3 over that stretch. They’ve only beaten the Giants and Bucs during that time and survived at the buzzer against both.

The 5-4 Bills desperately need a win to keep pace in the AFC, while the 3-5 Broncos must stack victories to make a miraculous playoff run. What happens Monday night will have big ramifications for both teams. 

Bills -7.0 (-120)

What to like about this line…

• Buffalo has proven it’s capable of winning big when everything is clicking. And it certainly was earlier this year. The Bills blasted the Raiders by 28, crushed the Commanders by 34 and dismantled the Dolphins by 28. Josh Allen and company have no problem putting up big totals when the opponent is mediocre. And while the Denver defense has been better of late, let’s not forget they did give up 70 to Miami earlier this year. There’s a path where this game gets ugly and the Bills have zero issues covering a touchdown spread.

• The Broncos are unproven on the road and have only played outside the Mile High City three times so far this year. As mentioned, they got killed by the Dolphins 70-20. They escaped a bad Chicago team with a 31-28 victory but were down 28-7 at one point. A good squad would never allow a comeback like that. And in Kansas City, they were shutout nearly the entire game before a garbage-time TD allowed them to lose 19-8. Long story short, they’re just 1-2 away from home and all three games have had some flaws. The Broncos have lost seven straight games on “Monday Night Football,” and Buffalo could easily make it eight.

What not to like about this line…

• You can make a strong case these are two teams going in opposite directions. The Broncos defense under maligned coordinator Vance Joseph has clearly figured something out. They gave up one touchdown in eight quarters against Mahomes and Andy Reid two of their last three games, and just 17 to the Packers in another win. Cornerback Pat Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons form one of the better secondary duos in the league, and pass-rusher Baron Browning is back with a vengeance, sacking Mahomes twice and forcing a fumble in his last game. They can certainly get after Allen, contain Stefon Diggs and keep this thing close.

• What is going on with the Bills? The seat of head coach Sean McDermott is getting warmer by the day, and many wonder if Buffalo missed their championship window. As mentioned, their wins against the Giants and Bucs, two bad football teams, came by less than a touchdown. They lost to the hapless Patriots during this rough stretch and weren’t up for the test in pivotal AFC showdowns against the Jaguars and Bengals. Right now, they probably shouldn’t be seven-point favorites over any team, let alone a Broncos squad that’s getting it together under Sean Payton. This may be too big of a line. 

Over / Under 47.5 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• The Bills have gone over this number three times this year, and when they have, twice it’s been with relative ease. They combined for 68 points with Miami and 54 against New England. They also hung 38 on the Raiders to get there back in Week 2. On the Denver side of things, QB Russell Wilson was fifth in the NFL entering the weekend with 16 touchdown passes. All those jokes from a season ago are dead, and the perennial Pro Bowler has figured out how to score once again. Denver has gone over this total in four of their eight games, including 90 points with the Dolphins, 68 points with the Commanders, 59 points with the Bears and 52 with the Jets. If its defense reverts to its old ways, this could easily get shattered. 

What to like about the under…

• The Broncos have gone under each of their last three times out, and none of them have even reached 40. It was just 33 points with the Chiefs last game and 27 the time before. Sandwiched in was a Packers game in which just 36 points were scored. And Buffalo also hasn’t gone over 47.5 points in two weeks, and four of their last five contests. The Bills have played back-to-back 24-18 games and also combined for just 23 points with the Giants, who everyone seemingly scores on. The forecast calls for it to be chilly at game time with temps in the mid 40s and double-digit winds also expected. That should help with the under, along with the recent trends of both these teams.

Preferred Prop: Courtland Sutton anytime TD scorer (+190)

• Wilson really trusts Sutton in the red zone this season, as the former SMU star already has six touchdowns. In fact, he’s scored a TD in six of Denver’s eight games, so it’s shocking this number has so much juice with it. He’s lit up the scoreboard in his last three games, catching touchdowns in both Chiefs contests and against the Packers. When the Broncos get close, Wilson likes the big body of Sutton to go make a play. He’ll be aiming for him down close to the end zone in Orchard Park.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Denver +7.0 (EV)

Why go away from what’s been working and try to get cute? The Broncos have clearly turned a corner while there are more questions than answers surrounding the Bills. If the Denver defense can do what it did to Mahomes, seeing Allen on the other sideline shouldn’t scare them at all. The Bills haven’t blown anyone out since all the way back on October 1, and a win by more than a touchdown in the NFL is a blowout. The Broncos didn’t sell at the trade deadline, something many expected them to do. The players will reward the faith of the front office and ownership by keeping this thing tight and maybe even have a chance to steal it at the end. Buffalo will escape, but in dramatic fashion, with a 21-20 victory.