SuperBook Sports previews tonight’s showdown

NFL: Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets

This isn’t a playoff game, but it might have the feel of one. The 4-3 Jets welcome the 3-4 Chargers, with both teams desperate for a win in a competitive AFC.

New York is overachieving after losing Aaron Rodgers to an Achilles injury, while Los Angeles is underachieving. If the Chargers don’t make the dance this season, you can bet head coach Brandon Staley will be out of work. 

And the Jets are hot, winners of three in a row after pulling a rabbit out of their hat in a stunning 13-10 overtime win over the Giants last week in one of the ugliest football games you’ll ever see. The Chargers are coming off a needed and dominant victory of their own, taking down the Bears 30-13 and stopping a mini two-game losing streak.

Whoever comes out victorious will be feeling good, while the loser might watch their postseason hopes fade. Who will fall into each category? Let’s find out…

Chargers -3.5 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• L.A. appeared to find something against Chicago, getting its dynamic offense back on track. Justin Herbert threw for 298 yards and three touchdown passes. He wasn’t intercepted and had a QB rating of 122.7. Dynamic running back Austin Ekeler finally appears to be fully healthy, catching seven passes for 94 yards and a score in the win over the Bears. Keenan Allen also hauled in eight of his 10 targets for 69 yards, and Herbert spread the ball out, with five players catching at least three passes. When they’re clicking on offense, the Chargers are tough to stop, and Herbert and company may have found their groove.

• Don’t look now, but the Los Angeles defense has given up 20 points or fewer in three of its last four times on the field. The Chargers are salivating going against an offense led by OC Nathaniel Hackett and QB Zach Wilson. The Jets scored a first quarter touchdown last week, then didn’t put up points again until the final seconds to force overtime. Wilson completed fewer than 50% of his passes and took four sacks. Breece Hall ran the rock only 12 times for 17 yards, or 1.4 yards per carry. This offense is not very good, and the Chargers might have a field day. They picked off Tyson Bagent twice last week and will be hunting the football. Covering 3.5 isn’t so tough if the other team can’t put up points.

What not to like about this line…

• The Jets defense is giving up just 18.4 points per game, and currently carrying this team. That mark was good for eighth in the NFL entering the week. Two weeks ago, they held the vaunted Eagles offense to just 14 points in a 20-14 victory, and last week the Giants managed to put just 10 on the scoreboard. In seven games this year, they’ve surrendered 21 or fewer on five occasions. The Bills scored just 16 against them, while the Chiefs managed only 23. They’ve been tested against some of the best and have passed virtually every time. Herbert, Ekeler and Allen don’t scare them, plus WR Joshua Palmer is out with a knee injury. They can hang with the top dogs, so a field goal and the hook might be too many points.

• New York has lost only three times, and one of those was by a field goal and another by five points. The Jets have played close games all season, rarely getting blown out other than a 30-10 rout by Dallas. But that was on the road. They seem to hang tough with any opponent in MetLife Stadium. And despite his rough week against the Giants, Hall remains one of the better running backs in the NFL. He’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry, which is No. 1 in the league amongst any back that has consistently toted the rock and played in all his team’s games. They’ll feed Hall early and often, helping bleed the clock and potentially escaping with a win.

Over / Under 40.0 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• The Chargers have gone over this shockingly low total in six of their seven games, including putting up a combined 70 with the Dolphins, 51 with the Titans, 52 with the Vikings and 48 with the Chiefs. Not only does L.A. generally play high-scoring games, the Chargers usually shatter this number with ease. Meanwhile, the Jets have gone over 40 in two of their last four contests and also had a push with the Cowboys. WR Garrett Wilson is finding his stride and some chemistry with Zach Wilson the last couple of times out, going for an even 100 yards against the Giants and 90 yards versus the Eagles. Forty isn’t hard to get to, especially if a defensive or special teams TD is mixed in. It’s worth a look.

What to like about the under…

• It’s hard to ignore what New York wants to do, and that’s slop the game up, take long possessions and not get into a shootout. It worked in wins over the Giants where just 23 combined points were scored and against Philadelphia as well, with just 34 being put on the board. The Jets have found a formula, and there’s no reason for head coach Robert Saleh not to stick with it. Los. Angeles also managed to score just 17 points against the Chiefs and Cowboys, two good defenses, so when the opposing unit is a top-tier group, they’ve held the Chargers in check. There’s plenty of evidence this could be 16-13 or even 21-17 type game, both of which would check the box on the under. When the total is this low, Vegas usually knows something, so proceed with caution.

Preferred Prop: Keenan Allen anytime TD scorer (+140)

• Herbert has a lot of weapons, but with Mike Williams lost for the year due to a torn ACL and Palmer also out due to a knee injury, Allen will be his favorite wide receiver on Monday night. The stud wideout has found the end zone four times this year, including in three of the last six games. He also has 30 combined targets the last three weeks, and never fewer than nine over that span. It’s a fact Herbert trusts Allen the most, and that won’t change in this one with points at a premium. Getting plus juice on one of the best players on the field to score is always worth pursuing.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: New York +3.5 (-110)

There’s been a saying out there for a long time that seems to always hold true: Chargers gonna Charger. Whether it be an epic collapse in the playoffs last season against the Jaguars, or the inability to win the big game so far this year against the Dolphins, Cowboys or Chiefs, it always seems to ring true. And while the Jets aren’t good, their elite defense certainly has proved they’re not bad. New York might have some magic brewing, with Rodgers dropping hints of an improbable and unheard of return from his gruesome injury. If the Jets get enough victories, he could be back, so this is a huge game for them. It’s not a certainty they leave the victors, but it also feels hard to envision a loss by more than a field goal. Especially when the opponent has a long history of choking in the biggest moments. Take New York and the points, and you should feel comfortable even in a tight game that the bet will cash.