SuperBook Sports previews tonight’s showdown

NFL: San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings

The 49ers looked human last Sunday in Cleveland, so maybe we shouldn’t give them the Lombardi Trophy just yet. In a 19-17 loss to the Browns, San Francisco wasn’t the same team after wide receiver Deebo Samuel and running back Christian McCaffrey got hurt and exited the game for good. Left tackle Trent Williams also had to depart and then came back, but he’s doubtful for this contest.

And while the Vikings will have their hands full with the 5-1 Niners, they got a win in Chicago last week that kept their season alive. Sure, it was an ugly 19-13 triumph for Minnesota over the Bears, but at 2-4, they were just a game back of the final wild card spot entering Week 7. It’ll be tough with stud wideout Justin Jefferson on IR, but as the trade deadline looms, Minnesota needs a win. Many thought this could be a playoff preview, but right now, these two teams look miles apart.

49ers -7 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• The 49ers have been dominant for most of this season, winning by at least a touchdown in all five victories and covering this spread. They beat the Steelers by 23, the Giants by 18, the Cardinals by 19 and the Cowboys by 32. San Francisco isn’t just taking teams down, they’re destroying them. QB Brock Purdy has ten touchdowns to go along with just one interception, and McCaffrey looks like a legit non-QB MVP contender. He’s rushed for 553 yards and seven touchdowns and has caught two more through the air. The most dynamic player in football is questionable with an oblique injury, so his status is definitely worth monitoring.

• Even though Samuel is out with a hairline fracture in his right shoulder, Purdy appears to have found a new favorite target. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has been phenomenal this year, and he’ll be relied upon heavily on Monday night. Aiyuk has 25 catches for 454 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 90.8 yards receiving per game. Tight end George Kittle found the end zone three times against the Cowboys, and his role should be expanded. The injury report is a blow, but Purdy still has plenty of weapons to work with. The Vikings defense has given up 22.5 points per game, which was 21^st in the NFL entering the weekend. The 49ers should still score, regardless of who’s in and who’s out.

What not to like about this line…

• Sure, Minnesota has lost four times this season, but the Vikings play close games. They fell to the Buccaneers by three, the Eagles by six, the Chargers by four and the Chiefs by seven. That’s a cover at this 6.5 number in three of their four games. And all four of those teams might make the playoffs, while Philadelphia and Kansas City could meet again in the Super Bowl. They went 13-4 last year for a reason and returned most of their key players. QB Kirk Cousins knows his window to win it all isn’t open for much longer, so this is a huge game. Not only can Minnesota keep this close and cover, it might even be able to pull out a win against a depleted 49ers team that’s just trying to get to their bye after two more games. 

• It’s impossible to ignore what happened to San Francisco last Sunday in Cleveland after losing Samuel and McCaffrey. Up 10-7 at half, the 49ers’ offense got stuck in the mud. They managed just seven points the rest of the way and rookie kicker Jake Moody pushed a 41-yard field goal in the final seconds that could’ve given them the win. He finished just 1-of-3 on field goals on the afternoon. Purdy threw for only 125 yards and completed 12 passes in maybe his worst game as a pro. Outside of Aiyuk, their second-leading receiver was Jauan Jennings with two catches for 26 yards. This isn’t the same team without their stars, so there’s definitely an argument to be made that it’s too many points being given to the Vikings at home.

Over / Under 43.0 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• Even with availability question marks, this number feels low. The 49ers have gone over 44 in three of their six games, and only missed it in a couple of others because of dominant defensive outings. They combined for 53 with the Rams, 51 with the Cardinals and 52 with the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Vikings have also topped this in three games, going for 62 with the Eagles, 52 with the Chargers and 47 with the Chiefs. The oddsmakers are definitely worried about the injuries to Samuel, Jefferson and McCaffrey, but guys like Aiyuk, Kittle, Alexander Mattison, T.J. Hockenson and K.J. Osborn can fill the void. Even a final score of 24-21 gets you over, and it’s not a stretch to think each of these teams can find the end zone three times. 

What to like about the under…

• Well, life came at these two squads fast without their best players. Minnesota scored only 19 in Chicago as Jefferson spent his first game on IR. Jordan Mason is a fun backup running back for San Francisco, but he’s not McCaffrey. They scored just 17 points without the services of him and Samuel for a lot of the day against the Browns. The recent evidence suggests both will need to make several adjustments without some of the most electric players in the game. Even if McCaffrey does go, there are questions if he’ll be on a pitch count or his durability to finish the game. That alone should make you worry enough that this finishes 20-17 and what looks like a small total ultimately misses by a touchdown. 

Preferred Prop: George Kittle Anytime TD +135

Without Deebo Samuel and (potentially) Christian McCaffrey, it’s time to look around the roster. It’s really a toss up between Aiyuk and Kittle, but since Kittle comes in at a slightly more favorable price of +135 (compared to Aiyuk’s +100), it’s time to go value shopping. Kittle scored three against the Cowboys, so cashing in on just one against the Vikings is a no-brainer.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Minnesota +7 (-110)

As fun as the Niners are, you can’t lose stars in the NFL and be the same team. A desperate Vikings group is 0-3 at home and simply must get a win to stay relevant. They’ve lost those three games by a combined 14 points, so it’s not like they’re far off. And you better believe the tape the Browns put out there against San Francisco has been studied hard this week. Purdy is a phenomenal story, but he was Mr. Irrelevant for a reason. He’s a good player, but more of a product of all the talent around him. Look for Purdy to struggle as the Niners and Vikes play a tightly contested game. San Fran will ultimately escape in the end, but it’ll be by a field goal or less. This is too many points.