SuperBook Sports previews tonight’s showdown

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders

This is a huge “Monday Night Football” game for both teams, as a loss will do real damage to their dreams for the 2023 season. The Packers can’t afford to fall under .500 and even further back from the Lions in the NFC North. The Raiders, at 1-3, basically must win or any faint playoff hopes in a competitive AFC are already dead. There’s a lot on the line.

And Las Vegas got good news a couple of days ago, when quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo exited concussion protocol and is cleared to start behind center. It’s finally the Jordan Love show in Green Bay, and he’s had some expected ups and downs for the 2-2 Packers. We should learn a lot about both squads by the time the clock hits 0:00.

Raiders -2.5 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• If it weren’t for a miracle comeback against the Saints after Derek Carr got hurt, Green Bay would only have one win… against the lowly Bears. There was always going to be a time after trading Aaron Rodgers when it got rough for Packers fans, and we might be here. The Lions blasted them the last time out, building a commanding 27-3 halftime lead and never really getting threatened in the second half.

• Yes, the Raiders only have one win, but outside of a shellacking in Buffalo (which happens to a lot of teams) they’ve been competitive. They lost by just a single score to the Steelers and Chargers, and played the second game without Jimmy G at QB. Maxx Crosby is a monster on the defensive line, and his four sacks are tied for fourth in the NFL. The Raiders could make life hard for Love and company, winning by a field goal in a low-scoring contest and covering this number. 

What not to like about this line…

• The only win for Las Vegas came over an underwhelming Denver squad, and that was by a single point all the way back in Week 1. There’s an argument to be made they shouldn’t be favorites over any team right now, especially when their home field gets invaded by opposing fans every week. You better believe there will be a ton of cheeseheads in Sin City on Monday night.

• While the Packers loss to the Lions wasn’t pretty, their only other defeat came by just a single point in Atlanta. In general, they play close and competitive games, especially when the opponent is subpar like the Raiders.  Love has shown he’s not afraid to use his legs, already rushing for two touchdowns this season. If he can dodge Crosby, he could have a big night on the ground. And Romeo Doubs is developing into a No. 1 WR, with 20 catches for 224 yards and three touchdowns. It might be a breakout game for Love, Doubs and the offense in Vegas. 

Over / Under 44.5 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• The Packers have gone over this total in three of four games, including scoring 58 total in a tilt with the Bears and 54 total in the contest with the Lions. They can score in the 30s, and also give up in the 30s. If either of those happen on Monday, this thing is headed over. And the Raiders gave up 38 to the Bills a couple of weeks ago, so that defense has holes that can be exploited. Finally, whenever Davante Adams is on the field, you’ve got a chance for a lot of points. In his only home game this year, he went off for 172 yards and two touchdowns at Allegiant Stadium versus the Steelers. However, he’s listed as questionable, so if he can’t go, that might change the thinking.

What to like about the under…

• Like Adams, Packers running back Aaron Jones is listed as questionable. If both players can’t get out there, the under feels like the play in an ugly game. The Raiders have gone under 44.5 in three of their four times on the field thus far, including just 33 total points with the Broncos and 41 against both the Steelers and Chargers. They tend to play games with final scores like 20-17, which would have this under by a touchdown. Green Bay also played a game with New Orleans that had just 35 points, so it’s not like it’s a shootout every time they’re out there. In a matchup that might not produce a lot of fireworks, the under is always a safe play. 

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Under 44.5 total points (-110)

Whenever the stars are questionable, you have to lean toward the under. And even if Adams and Jones end up going, this doesn’t feel like a game that will feature a ton of points. When both teams need a win, things tend to move slower and possession of the football is at a premium. Jimmy G could be rusty after missing a week and the Packers have scored 24, 18 and 20 since their fast start against a miserable Chicago defense. The Raiders have put up 17, 10, 18 and 17 in their four games, failing to reach 20 points all season. Buckle in for a 17-13 game, regardless of the winner, and be happy to root for just a few scores on your way to cashing the under.