Suggestions for early-in-the-week action

MLB Home Run Derby
T-Mobile Park – Seattle, WA
8:00 PM ET
SuperBook Line: Pete Alonso +300

The Home Run Derby is here! And the event has gotten even more electric over the last four years. The top-five rounds of all-time have come since 2019, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting a ridiculous 40 in the second round in 2019 thanks to a couple of swing-offs. T-Mobile Park in Seattle is in the bottom third of home runs given up this year, but it shouldn’t matter on Monday night as a star-studded field puts on another show. 

Why to consider Pete Alonso…

• How can you not love the “Polar Bear” Pete Alonso at +300 to win this event? He did it 2019 at Progressive Field in Cleveland and in 2021 at Coors Field in Denver.

• Alonso has the stamina as well, improving his total in every round in 2019, walking off his opponent with 14 dingers, 20 and then 23 to take the crown.

• In 2021, he launched 35 homers in round one, the most all evening. Then, he took down Juan Soto in the semis and Trey Mancini in the finals.

• Don’t overthink it: Alonso is thinking about a third crown.

Why to consider Julio Rodriguez…

• Julio Rodriguez is a phenomenal young star. The Mariners fan favorite will look to put on a show in front of his hometown crowd.

• He did well last year at Dodger Stadium, making it all the way to the finals before bowing out to the champion Soto. But Rodriguez had the two high rounds of the night, hitting a ridiculous 32 home runs in the first round and then putting up 31 for an encore in the second, knocking off none other than Alonso.

• If you’re looking for a second bet or some more juice, Rodriguez at +550 makes a lot of sense.

Richard DeMala’s pick: Julio Rodriguez to win (+550)

MLB All-Star Game
T-Mobile Park – Seattle, WA
8:00 PM ET
SuperBook Line: American League -115

The MLB All-Star Game is here, and it’ll dominate the headlines as we enter the deadest week on the sports calendar. Over the next four days, the biggest sporting event on the calendar will be on Tuesday night in Seattle.

What to know about the National League…

• The National League has two of the three favorites to win the World Series in the Braves (+300) and Dodgers (+700), while the Rays (+500) pace the American League.

• Atlanta is unreal right now, entering the break with a clean 60 wins, by far the most in baseball. The Braves have gone 9-2 over their last 11 games.

• A well-deserved eight Braves will be in Seattle, tied for a record of the most selections by an NL team.

What to know about the American League…

• It’s impossible to ignore recent history, as the AL has won nine All-Star Games in a row, dating all the way back to 2013.

• The American League has outscored the National League 43-22 over that stretch and has won six of the nine games by at least two runs. They’ve given up three or fewer runs in eight of the nine contests, as a slew of dominant pitchers have silenced some of the best hitters in the world.

• The trend has to end at some point, but it’s hard to stay away from an obvious pick when the answer is staring you in the face. Don’t overthink what is a very generous line, take the AL at -115 and watch them make it 10 in a row on Tuesday night in Seattle.

Richard DeMala’s pick: American League M/L (-115)

MLB All-Star Game
T-Mobile Park – Seattle, WA
8:00 PM ET
SuperBook Line: Over/under 7.5

With all of the talent on the field in Seattle on Tuesday night, it would seem like a lot of runs could be scored. But given the fact that T-Mobile Park is typically a pitchers’ park, either side of the over/under seems possible.

What to know about the over…

• 7.5 runs would be an extremely low total for any game in the majors this year, as you’d have to have two aces on the mound for the oddsmakers to feel comfortable going that low.

• It’ll be all aces on Tuesday at T-Mobile Park, but even the best pitchers can get dinged with guys like Shohei Ohtani (32 home runs), Matt Olson (29 home runs) and Mookie Bette (26 home runs) standing over the plate.

What to know about the under…

• Five of the last six games have gone under this total, including each of the last three. Those were 3-2, 5-2 and 4-3 games, so they were in range but couldn’t quite creep over.

• The outlier was an 8-6 game at Nationals Park back in 2018. That was five years ago.

• The last time this game was in Seattle, all the way back in 2001, that one ended in a 4-1 final score.

• It’s easy to bet with your heart and take the over, given that most people want to see some offensive fireworks. But do this wager with your head and take the under. The dominant pitching will once again be the story over the big boppers in the Pacific Northwest.

Richard DeMala’s pick: Under 7.5 runs (-110)

Three Things We Learned…

Takeaways from a weekend full of great games and performances

Soccer can be a roller coaster

After 88 minutes of scoreless soccer during the quarterfinal matchup between the United States and Canada in the CONCACAF Gold Cup, things got wild. The Americans scored late, seemingly set to steal a win. But the Canucks got a penalty kick because of a hand ball in the 90^th minute to force extra time. There, both teams scored. First, it was the Canadians taking the lead. But then, the U.S. team answered to force penalty kicks. Team USA won on PKs in an electrifying game.

***

Don’t judge too early

When Victor Wembanyama made his much-anticipated debut with the Spurs on Friday, it was one of the most-hyped Summer League games of all-time. So, it shouldn’t have been a big surprise that the No. 1 pick’s lackluster performance, scoring just nine points on 2-of-13 shooting, caused a lot of people to immediately call the 7-foot-3 uber-talent a bust. On Sunday, Wembanyama bounced back, however, scoring 27 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. It was another example of patience being a virtue. The big fella is going to be just fine in the NBA.

***

A human highlight reel

Elly De La Cruz continues to amaze. The 21-year-old shortstop seems to make news on a daily basis, doing something that wows fans in Cincinnati and beyond. On Saturday, the Reds rising star did it with an electrifying seventh inning against the Brewers. First, he drove in the go-ahead run, breaking a 5-5 tie. Then, he stole second and third on back-to-back pitches, before stealing home without another pitch being thrown. It was an unusual, exciting, heart-stopping play, just the kind of things baseball needs.