A preview of the bracket as March Madness begins

East

Pick to Reach Final Four

Duke is one of the hottest teams in the country, the winner of nine games in a row, including an ACC tournament title over Virginia last weekend. In arguably the weakest region in the field, there’s not a team in the top four seeds that’s truly scary. There’s no reason to think Jeremy Roach, Kyle Filipowski and the Blue Devils can’t handle Purdue in the Sweet 16 before taking down Marquette, Kansas State or someone else in the Elite 8. Duke is headed to Houston.

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Dark Horse to Reach Final Four

Even though Michigan State had an up and down season by its standards, how can you count out Tom Izzo come tournament time? The legendary head coach has been to eight Final Fours in his career, including as recently as 2019. The No. 7 Spartans should beat USC with ease then have a decent shot to upset Marquette. After that, anything is possible. 

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First Round Upset Alert

The No. 13 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns won the Sun Belt championship to complete an impressive 26-7 season, including going 16-5 in the conference if you count the tournament. Meanwhile, Tennessee is battling some key injuries and is over-seeded given its high AP ranking all season. They lost in the SEC quarterfinals to a No. 7-seed in Missouri and finished the season 5-7 in their final 12 games. The Volunteers have no momentum and Louisiana will send them home early. 

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Best Game in the Bracket

No. 8 Memphis and No. 9 Florida Atlantic will be a blast. Have you seen the record for the Owls this year? 31-3! They also mixed in a 20-game winning streak after starting the season 1-1, then stretching their record to 21-1. They’re a dangerous team. And the Tigers have a ton of confidence after beating No. 1 Houston in the American Athletic championship on Sunday. They’ll play with swagger against and FAU squad that isn’t used to losing. This should be a classic.

Midwest

Pick to Reach Final Four

After suffering back-to-back losses to Baylor and TCU, Texas has righted the ship. The Horns have won four in a row, bookended by two convincing victories over Kansas. They won by 16 on March 4, followed by a 20-point win in the Big 12 championship game. The Longhorns have a lot of balance, but they’re led by guard Marcus Carr. The senior leads the team in points (15.9) and assists (4.1) per game, providing a steady influence on the court at all time. His leadership will help Texas advance through the bracket.

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Dark Horse to Reach Final Four

Everyone loves the 5-12 matchups when trying to find a first-round upset. Don’t look that direction in the Midwest, however. The No. 5 seed could make a deep run, as Miami got disrespected by the committee. The Hurricanes are 25-7 heading into the big dance, the best record of any ACC team. While Duke and Virginia get all of the attention, however, Miami flies under the radar. The Hurricanes will get by Drake in the first round, with Indiana or Kent State waiting in round two. After the Canes breeze into the Sweet 16, they have a great chance of upsetting Houston, if the Cougars are still alive at that point. The road to the Final Four is there for Miami.

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First Round Upset Alert

Everyone is going to be tempted to jump off the Houston bandwagon. The Cougars will be seen as the “worst favorite” heading into an NCAA tournament in decades. And it’s all because they laid an egg in the AAC title game, losing by 10 to Memphis. Never mind that they’re still 31-3 overall. Forget that it was their first loss since Jan. 22. All of the focus will be on the most recent setback. While the Cougars will get by Northern Kentucky in the first round, don’t be so sure they’ll make it to the second weekend. The 6-to-1 favorite could easily get bounced by the winner of the Auburn-Iowa game, especially if leading scorer Marcus Sasser can’t go because of a groin injury.

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Best Game in the Bracket

The matchup between Iowa and Auburn in the first round is a doozy. The Hawkeyes have a high-powered offense, as Fran McCaffery’s team averages more than 80 points per game. Meanwhile, Bruce Pearl’s Tigers give up only 67.1 points per game. It’s a contrast of styles, which will be fascinating to watch unfold. Can Auburn slow down Kris Murray and company? Can Iowa play their style against a relentless defense? This 8 vs. 9 matchup will be one of the best to watch on Thursday.

South

Pick to Reach Final Four

If you’re trying to decide which team will emerge from the South Region, it boils down to one, simple question: Which top-seeded team hails from the best conference? With Alabama, the SEC champs; Arizona, the Pac-12 champs; Baylor, losers to Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals; and Virginia, losers to Duke in the ACC championship game, the South is one of the strongest regions in the bracket. But there are really only two conferences in the discussion – the SEC and Big 12. Between them, they field 15 teams. The SEC boasts eight – the most in conference history – while the Big 12 places seven. In the season’s final AP Poll, both conferences had five teams in the top-25. Since Baylor isn’t even the first- or second-best team in the Big 12, and Alabama only suffered two losses within the SEC this season, logic says this is Alabama’s region to lose. While Arizona, the South’s No. 2 seed, might be a trendy pick, there’s no need to overthink this. Not only do the ‘Cats have a tougher path to the regional final with both Missouri and Baylor standing in the way, but ‘Bama really shouldn’t be tested at all. And remember, it was Alabama that handed Houston one of its three losses this season. The Tide enter the tournament red hot after blasting Texas A&M in Sunday’s SEC finale. Go chalk here, as the Tide will roll into the Final Four.

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Dark Horse to Reach Final Four

If there’s one team that could be overshadowed in the South Region, it’s the Creighton Blue Jays. Their 21-12 record won’t jump off of your “printable” bracket, but a dive inside the numbers reveals a 3-8 stretch from late November to early January, but a 12-4 finish to the season – including a runner-up showing in the Big East Tournament. Within the eight aforementioned losses, four of them came at the hands of top-25 teams, three of which were on the road. Also included were narrow 2- and 5-point losses to Arizona and Texas, respectively. Creighton’s up-and-down style of play can stun anyone in March.

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First Round Upset Alert

Predicting any 13-4 upset is akin to throwing darts in the dark, but there’s sound, mathematical rationale behind this one. Specifically, Furman doesn’t turn the ball over and shoots extremely well – two ingredients for an upset in March. Per ESPN, “in January and February, Furman committed turnovers on just 14.4% of its possessions and shot 58% from inside the arc.” It’s a down year for the ACC, and this one feels like a solid mid-major punching a traditional power in the nose before it knows what’s happened. There’s a reason the SuperBook Sports oddsmakers only have 5 points separating the No. 13 and the No. 4.

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Best Game in the Bracket

At 24-9, Missouri certainly held its own in the arguably the country’s best conference. With six wins against top-25 teams, the Tigers should be battle tested and might even be considered a bit of a sleeper as a 7-seed. On the flip side, Utah State is making its third consecutive trip to the Big Dance – no small feat for a team hailing from the Mountain West. The Aggies are led by Steven Ashworth, a first-team All-Mountain West selection who shoots a silky 45% from behind the arc. Every year there’s a 7-10 upset or two, and this one feels like it could come down to the wire.

West

Pick to Reach Final Four

The best news for the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks? Texas isn’t in their region. KU finished the season 8-2 in their final 10 games, with the only two losses both coming at the hands of the Longhorns. A 20-point beatdown in Big 12 championship was a humbling experience, but Kansas should rebound in the tournament that matters. The Jayhawks are the strongest team in the region and should have no trouble reaching the Elite 8. After that, whoever emerges from Gonzaga and UCLA should make for an epic game, but the Jayhawks will be fresher considering they’ll be on cruise control. Kansas goes to the Final Four for the 17^th time. 

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Dark Horse to Reach Final Four

No. 6 TCU had one of the best wins of the entire season when the Horned Frogs went into Allen Fieldhouse on Jan. 21 and whipped Kansas 83-60 on its homecourt. It’s rare to see the Jayhawks lose in Lawrence, it’s unheard of for it to be by 23 points. The Horned Frogs proved they can play with any team and aren’t scared of anyone. That’s a big benefit for a team that would likely have to upset Gonzaga, UCLA and Kansas again to head to Houston. It’s not the outcome many will expect, but crazier things have happened. Keep an eye on TCU to make a deep run. 

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First Round Upset Alert

Did see you what No. 5 seeded St. Mary’s did against Gonzaga in the WCC title game? Woof. The Gaels got whipped by the Bulldogs 77-51, once again proving they will always be little brother in that conference. And No. 12 VCU is scorching hot, riding a nine-game winning streak into the tournament, including a conference title victory over Dayton. The Rams won seven of those nine games by double digits. This contest screams a classic 12-5 upset, as VCU moves on and St. Mary’s is a disappointing one and done. 

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Best Game in the Bracket

No. 8 Arkansas and No. 9 Illinois sees two programs with proud traditions battle for a shot to face Kansas in the Round of 32. It’s two heavyweights going at it in what might be the best game of the first round across the entire bracket. Arkansas lost four of its last five games, but all of those came against ranked opponents and three of the four defeats were close. That recent experience should help in a big way. And Illinois gave No. 1 seeded Purdue all it could handle back on March 5, a close 76-71 loss. The point is someone has to win this one, and it’ll be fascinating to see who emerges.