SuperBook Sports previews the Divisional Round

NFL: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Last week, the Houston Texans hosted a playoff game against the Cleveland Browns. They went into the game as a two-point underdog. They won by 31 points and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud didn’t even have to play the whole game.

Stroud became the youngest quarterback to ever win a playoff game and did it with style, throwing for 274 yards and three touchdowns. The QB and his Texans teammates are hitting their stride at the right time, as they head into Baltimore to face the toughest team in the league.

The Ravens boast the league’s best defense, giving up just 16.5 points per game. They also have the league’s third-best offense with 28.4 PPG.

Lamar Jackson is the odds-on favorite to win the MVP. This week, he gets some help, as All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews will be making his return after he fractured his fibula in Week 11.

The Ravens are currently favored by 9.5 points. Their starters have had two weeks of rest and they will be playing a Texans team that, in that same time period, has essentially played two playoff games.

The Texans have had two “win-or-go-home” games in a row. However, it’s hard to tell if the extra rest will pay off for the Ravens.

Sure, they’ll go into the game with fewer bumps and bruises, but will they start slow? Only time will tell.

What is known is that the Ravens are very much a proven team. They have beaten teams such as San Francisco, Miami, Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh, all of which were playoff teams. Not to mention, they beat Stroud and the Texans by a 25-9 count earlier this year.

But that was all the way back in Week 1. Will this game yield the same results?

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Texans +9.5 (-110)

Things look much different now. Both teams have found their rhythm and are playing at a high level. The Ravens look like the superior squad, but we’ve seen the Texans thrive as the underdog. If you’re looking for a bet to place on this game, take the Texans to cover the 9.5-point spread.

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NFL: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

The Green Bay Packers shocked the football world on Sunday when they defeated the Dallas Cowboys on the road, winning 48-32. The Packers became the first No. 7 seed to ever win a playoff game.

Things don’t get easier, however, as they will now travel to Santa Clara to play the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The San Francisco 49ers have looked like the league juggernaut for just about the entire year.

With an abundance of talent on the offensive side and an extremely fast defense, the 49ers are as complete as it gets. They have not one but two names in the hat for MVP in quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey had 2,000 all-purpose yards and 21 touchdowns in 16 games played this season. His performance led to a unanimous first team All-Pro selection and he should be a lock for Offensive Player of the Year. McCaffrey has been a huge part of the 49ers success this year and looks to continue his domination in the playoffs.

The 49ers are currently 9.5-point favorites at home against the Packers. But Green Bay is no stranger to being the underdog. The Packers were 7.0-point underdogs against the Cowboys and won by two scores.

This week will certainly be a tougher challenge, but quarterback Jordan Love seems ready for anything. Love is arguably playing the best football of any QB in the league at the moment.

Since Week 11, Green Bay’s first-year starter has thrown for 21 touchdowns and just one interception. It is unprecedented what the Packers have been able to do in what was thought to be a rebuilding year for the franchise due to the departure of future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The young core has flourished in the back half of the season and it appears they may have yet another franchise QB on their hands.

The 49ers will have home field advantage in this game, but they will also have the health advantage, as well. The starters for San Francisco have had two full weeks to rest in preparation for this contest.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Green Bay +9.5 (-110)

While it’s likely that the 49ers will be too much for the Packers to handle, expect Matt Lafleur’s guys to be ready to go once again. A 9.5-point spread is too much for Jordan Love and the Packers. They may not win, but you can be sure the Packers will give the 49ers a run for their money.

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NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Raise your hand if you had Tampa Bay and Detroit competing for a spot in the NFC Championship? If your hand is up, go ahead and put it down, because you’re lying.

Two of the best stories in the NFL will battle at Ford Field on Sunday afternoon, with the winner just one step away from the Super Bowl. Quarterbacks Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield were both kicked to the curb by their old teams, but each is now seeking to earn the ultimate revenge.

For Goff, he already got some by taking down the Rams in a 24-23 thriller last Sunday. Los Angeles sent him out of town after making it to a Super Bowl. While the Rams got a ring of their own with Matthew Stafford, that had to feel sweet for Goff.

For Mayfield, many wondered if he’d be a career backup after bouncing around the NFL following his split with the Browns. He’s found a home in Tampa Bay and the Bucs absolutely embarrassed the Eagles by a final score of 32-9 in the Wild Card Round. It put the nail in the coffin on a dramatic Philly collapse. This Lions-Buccaneers game is full of interesting storylines.

For Detroit, the win against L.A. was significant for a lot of reasons. First and foremost, the franchise earned its first playoff victory since the 1991 season. The atmosphere was absolutely electric, with many brought to tears when the clock finally hit 0:00.

And the usual suspects got it done for the Lions. Stud wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown had seven catches for 110 yards and converted a key first down in the final minutes that assured Detroit could kneel the clock out and not give the ball back to L.A. Josh Reynolds also came up huge, catching five passes for 80 yards. Running back David Montgomery found the end zone as well as tight end Sam LaPorta, who battled through a nasty knee injury to miraculously play. He should be good to go this weekend, as the Bucs will have their hands full with a slew of playmakers.

And don’t sleep on the Detroit defense. Other than a tough second quarter, they didn’t give up touchdowns to the Rams in the first, third or fourth. It was a bend-but-don’t-break effort, with several key red zone stops forcing field goal attempts. That’s why they ultimately won the game. If the Lions have that complete of an effort on Sunday, they can easily cover by a touchdown as the clock strikes midnight on the Buccaneers.

But should anyone count out Tampa at this point? The Bucs didn’t just beat the Eagles; they slaughtered them. Mayfield was a man on a mission, throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns. He’s going to get rewarded with a handsome deal this offseason, whenever the Bucs’ magical journey comes to an end.

He also did an excellent job spreading the football around, as nine different players caught passes and five went for at least 45 yards receiving. It wasn’t even Mike Evans doing all the heavy lifting, as his respectable outing (three catches, 48 yards) was outshined by the likes of David Moore, Trey Palmer and Cade Otten. Chris Godwin caught a late TD, as well.

If Mayfield can distribute the ball this well, a shaky Lions secondary could be in for a long afternoon. Rachaad White also rushed for 72 yards and the Tampa Bay defense gave up only nine points to a vaunted Philly offense. They even stopped the “tush push” on a two-point try, something no one has really been able to do. If they play a similar game in Detroit, not only could they cover a relatively big spread, the Bucs could win outright. 

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (-110)

These two teams met on Oct. 15, but boy does that feel like a long time ago. The Lions won that day by a final score of 20-6, as Mayfield threw for just 206 yards and an interception and the Bucs were held to two lousy field goals. But it’s not about what you did three months ago, it’s about what you’re doing right now. And Tampa Bay is 6-1 over its last seven games, as they stormed back from a 4-7 record to take the NFC South and launch themselves all the way into the NFL’s “Elite Eight.” Mayfield is playing with an irrational confidence, the defense has tightened up and the Buccaneers are rolling along with house money. Plus, against the Eagles they proved it wasn’t just the household names who get it done on offense. The Lions are an amazing story and may very well get to the NFC Championship Game, but 6.5 is simply too many points. Look for homefield to tilt the scales just enough in the favor of Goff and Detroit, but this game will absolutely be close. The Lions move on in a 24-21 thriller that definitely lives up to the anticipation.

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NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Is Mahomes versus Allen turning into the next Manning versus Brady? It’s starting to feel that way. The next great AFC QB rivalry is the game of the weekend on Sunday, so it’s fitting the NFL saved it for last.

The two quarterbacks have met six times in their careers thus far, with each winning three games. However, Patrick Mahomes is 2-0 against Josh Allen in the playoffs, with both wins leading to absolute heartbreak in Buffalo.

Sure, Allen has the 3-1 regular season mark against Kansas City, but legacies are built in the postseason. The good news for the Bills is this is the first time ever Mahomes must play a true road playoff game. That’s a wild stat at this juncture in his career, but it shows how dominant the Chiefs have been; his path to the Super Bowl has always gone through Arrowhead Stadium.

K.C. is coming off a dominant performance against Miami in the cold, a 26-7 laugher in a game that wasn’t even that close. Buffalo handled Pittsburgh last Monday, 31-17 in a contest that was delayed by a nasty snowstorm. The field got cleared but the stands didn’t, and Bills Mafia still made the most of it. The viral clips of them throwing snow in the air every time Buffalo scored a touchdown were fun to watch.

Is this the year the Bills finally bury the Chiefs once and for all? There’s a compelling case to be made on both sides.

Kansas City’s offense looked the best it had in a while against the Dolphins. Mahomes threw for 262 yards and a touchdown, and it felt like the Chiefs had no trouble moving the football.

Rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice was special, perhaps finally living up to the hype that fans had expected all season. He caught eight passes for 130 yards and was on the receiving end of Mahomes’ lone touchdown toss. Tight end Travis Kelce overcame some early drops to finish with a solid stat line of seven catches for 71 yards and Mahomes looked his way 10 times.

Running back Isiah Pacheco might be the angriest runner in the NFL, and he was quite good, going for 89 yards on the ground and a score. The formula for the Chiefs this year is to be more balanced, and 24 carries for Pacheco plus another seven for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, definitely helped them achieve that.

And how about this defense? Wouldn’t it be fitting if it wasn’t Mahomes that carried the Chiefs to their third Lombardi Trophy in the last five seasons? The D held the Miami offense to just 13 first downs, with a lot of them coming when the game was firmly out of reach.

The Dolphins went 1-of-12 on third downs overall. K.C. hit Tua Tagovailoa five times, sacked him twice and picked him off once. The Miami ground game was non-existent, as their two stud running backs combined for only 42 yards. Buffalo will be more prepared for cold than the team from South Beach, but it looked like a championship effort holding an explosive offense to a lousy seven points. 

Meanwhile, Josh Allen is looking unstoppable after a bit of a shaky start to the season. He threw for three touchdowns against the Steelers and rushed for another one, having his fingerprints all over the four times the Bills found the end zone.

Allen has an obvious chemistry with rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid, hooking up three times for 59 yards and a score. Stefon Diggs caught seven passes and Khalil Shakir stepped up for 31 yards and an absolutely beautiful touchdown without Gabriel Davis available.

On the ground, James Cook did James Cook things, rushing for 79 yards on 18 carries. A stronger commitment to the run has been key for Buffalo as of late.

They’re now 7-1 since making a change at the offensive coordinator position after an embarrassing loss to the Broncos on “Monday Night Football.” Their only loss during that stretch came in overtime to the Eagles, when they still looked like a top contender.

In fact, the Bills are now on a six-game winning streak, making them one of the hottest teams in the NFL. In that stretch, they’ve beaten the Chiefs, Cowboys, Dolphins and Steelers, all good teams.

It feels like now or never for them to finally get this thing done, and they’ll need the defense to be at its best. They’ve held opponents to 17 points or fewer during the winning streak four times and gave up in the low 20s in the other two victories.

It’s hard not to wonder if head coach Sean McDermott is coaching for his job, and you have to think the players know that, providing them plenty of extra motivation. 

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Bills ML (-150)

Even though 2.5 points doesn’t feel like a ton, take the moneyline just to be safe. The Bills will finally get over the Chiefs hump in the playoffs, but leave it to Mahomes to make it by a single point or two. For as good as the Chiefs looked last week, something has simply been off all year. Looming Andy Reid retirement rumors could be affecting them, or perhaps it’s other distractions off the field. Or maybe, they’re just not as good as they’ve been the last four seasons. Mahomes desperately needs another reliable wide receiver or two, and this will be the game it finally catches up to him. Hopefully the folks in Buffalo don’t throw any snowballs at Taylor Swift, as she might actually not be the main story considering how good of a game this should be. The Bills saved their AFC East hopes and perhaps their season with a 20-17 win at Arrowhead back on Dec. 10, and they’ll find a way to get it done again. The more talented offense will prevail, but not without some intense drama. Buffalo heads to the AFC Championship Game with a nail-biting 24-23 victory.