SuperBook Sports previews the football weekend ahead

Cotton Bowl: (7) Ohio State vs. (9) Missouri

Remember when the Ohio State Buckeyes were the No. 1 ranked team in the country? When the first official CFP rankings came out, it was the Buckeyes – not Michigan, not Georgia, not anyone else – who held the top spot. In fact, they were No. 1 in both the Week 9 and Week 10 rankings. And then they stayed within the top-four until Week 13, where they fell to No. 8 after they’d lost to rival, and (now) No. 1 ranked Michigan.

This year’s Buckeyes are a classic example of why it pays to lose early instead of late. Within this year’s CFP participants, only Michigan and Washington are undefeated (Florida State is, too, but apparently that didn’t matter to anyone who has any say, as the Seminoles were bumped to No. 5 in the final ranking of the season… a different gripe for a different time). Meanwhile, both Alabama and Texas have a single loss – Alabama’s came at the hands of Texas in Week 2, while Texas’ loss was to Oklahoma, which finishes the CFP rankings as the No. 12 team in the country.  

So, let’s get this straight: Texas is in, despite losing to Oklahoma; who has two losses and a No. 12 ranking; but one-loss Ohio State, who was beaten by the very best team in the country, isn’t even ranked in the top-six.

Huh?

Well, that’s college football, where logic and head-to-head opponents don’t always mean much.

But for our purposes, the question one must ask is whether or not the Ohio State Buckeyes are truly the No. 7 team in the country? Shouldn’t they be higher? Remember, they spent most of the season undefeated, kicked off the CFP weekly rankings No. 1, and still have one of the best defenses in America.

Perhaps a better thesis to ponder is if the Buckeyes – a five-point favorite over Missouri – are ready show the world they actually did belong, or, if they’re bored by the entire premise of playing in a game that won’t lead to a shot at a national title. It’s a loaded topic, as Ohio State – in many ways – does not want to be playing in the Cotton Bowl. Missouri, on the other hand, is thrilled to have reached such a high-level bowl against a notable opponent.  An oversimplification of the Cotton Bowl theorizes that it’s a game between a team that’s excited to be there versus one that’s not.

Perhaps the Buckeyes that took the field before the Michigan game truly were a top-four(-ish) team. Perhaps if that loss would have taken place in Week 2 (like Alabama’s only blemish), Ohio State would be playing on Monday instead of Friday night.

Then again, the team that will line up for Ohio State tonight isn’t really the same team that it was before. Like many bowl-eligible teams, a lot happens between Thanksgiving and bowl season.

Besides, it’s impossible to predict the mindset of either team, so if you’re looking to wager on the Cotton Bowl, it’s most important to examine a few key facts.

Bud Parmalee’s Pick: Missouri +5.0 (-110)

Had this game been played in October, there’s no doubt that Ohio State would have been the favorite (just as they are now). And had the game been played then, this recommendation would be far different. That team is not the same as this team. Look no further than two of Ohio State’s most-important players, quarterback Kyle McCord and star wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. McCord is off in the transfer portal, while Harrison is too good to risk injury – so, without a national championship on the line, he’s not planning on it.

Then again, Ohio State’s offense was not the reason they won; their defense was the No. 2 scoring defense in the country allowing just 11 points per game. That same defense, however, may be asked to do too much on Friday night, it’s quite possible the “postseason” version of the Buckeye offense won’t be able to play complimentary football. And even if the Ohio State defense is like nothing Missouri has ever seen, it’s important to note that the Tigers have scored fewer than 30 points in a game just twice this season (and one was against Georgia, where they still put up 21). It’s quite possible that Ohio State and all its talent will eventually win out, but the fact that their offense is missing key pieces is troubling. For that reason, this game doesn’t seem like a blowout in the making. Missouri wants to be there, so they’ll keep this one interesting at the very least. This feels like an ugly, grind it out win for either team, so let’s play the dog and gladly take the 5.0 points. Heck, this one could come down to a field goal either way. 

NFL: Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens

Both the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens have clinched playoff berths, but neither has clinched their division. A win for either team would do just that.

If the Dolphins win, they will not only wrap up the AFC East. They will also tie the Ravens for the best record in the AFC and have a shot at the first-round bye. If the Ravens win, they will clinch the AFC’s top seed.

This is without a doubt one of the biggest games of the season, with the outcome being pivotal for both teams. The Ravens are currently favored by 3.0 points at home and will try to improve on their five-game winning streak. The Dolphins will try to end that streak and win their sixth game in seven weeks.

On Christmas Day, Baltimore went into Santa Clara as 6.5-point underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers. Baltimore ended up winning by two touchdowns, dominating in a 33-19 victory.

The signature win came thanks in large part to the play of quarterback Lamar Jackson. As one of the league’s best dual-threat QBs, Jackson had 252 yards passing and tacked on 45 yards on the ground.

It was also the defense that helped win Baltimore the game. They had four interceptions and four sacks against Brock Purdy. It was arguably the most-impressive team defensive performance displayed all season.

They will have to replicate that however when they face Miami’s explosive offense that consists of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. However, they may not have to worry about it as much as one may think.

Waddle is trending towards missing Week 17 with an ankle sprain, while Hill and Achane are questionable. Will they have enough to penetrate the Raven’s stout defense? Probably not.

Last week the Dolphins barely escaped with a win over Dallas on a last-minute field goal. They scored just 22 points on the Dallas defense, which is lower than usual for Miami. Now, they will face an even tougher Ravens defense. 

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Baltimore -3.0 (-110)

Baltimore proved on Christmas night that they’re the best team in the NFL. They have the likely MVP, as Lamar Jackson is carrying the offense. And their defense causes havoc at seemingly every turn. Miami isn’t going on the road and beating this team. The Ravens will win and cover.

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

“Sunday Night Football” in Week 17 will be an NFC North matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. Both teams are currently sitting at 7-8 and are one game out of the wild card in the NFC.

The winner of this game will most likely be right in the mix for the last couple wild card spots, while the loser is essentially eliminated. The game is currently a pick ‘em, with both teams having the same moneyline odds.

The Vikings were 7-6 at one point and had a shot for the division title, but two straight losses to the Bengals and Lions have them scrambling to get in.

Minnesota has had six different quarterbacks this season. They lost their starter, Kirk Cousins, to a season-ending Achilles injury and then the heroic play of Josh Dobbs whittled down so fast that he got benched for Nick Mullens. This week, rookie Jaren Hall gets the call.

Mullens played well despite losing two out of the three games that he has started. In the last two games, he threw for 303 and 411 yards, respectively. But the Vikings want to see the kid play.

Despite having the same record as Minnesota, Green Bay is feeling much better about where they are heading into this one. Minnesota had playoff expectations, while Green Bay was expecting a rebuild year with Jordan Love at quarterback. Instead, they are right in the mix once again with Love, who has been a standout thus far.

Love is currently tied for third in the league when it comes to passing touchdowns with 27. He has thrown only 11 interceptions and will most likely throw for over 4,000 yards this season.

His receivers have been another surprise. The wideout room is full of names like Christian Watson. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs. At the beginning of the year, it looked like one of the worst rooms in the league. Now, they are looking like a pretty good unit that seems to be underrated every week.

The Packers offense ranks 18^th in the league, while Minnesota’s ranks 21^st. The Packers defense ranks 17^th, while Minnesota’s ranks sixth. It is a pick ‘em game for a reason and neither team really has an edge.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Green Bay ML (-110)

The Vikings won the last matchup 24-10, but that was with healthy Kirk Cousins. Now, with Hall as their QB and the Packers playing better, this one should be a lot closer. The Vikings are at home, but it’s hard to go with a rookie starter. Take the Packers.