SuperBook Sports previews the weekend ahead

CFB: No. 9 Ole Miss @ No. 2 Georgia

Everyone in the SEC is trying to figure out how Ohio State has maintained the No. 1 ranking in the CFP – ahead of Georgia, a squad that hasn’t lost since a regular season game since 2020 (make that 36 in a row!). Wasn’t it the Buckeyes who should have lost to Notre Dame? Isn’t it Ohio State that “boasts” an offense that’s outside the nation’s top-45 in yards per game? Wasn’t Ohio State ranked below both Georgia and Michigan in last week’s AP Poll? Georgia boasts the country’s ninth-best yards per game defense and the No. 6 offense in yards per game (and No. 10 in scoring). 

If there’s ever been a week that Georgia has a point to prove, it’s this one. And it’s a program very capable of doing so.

But in the words of Lee Corso, however, “Not… so… fast… my… friend!”

Ole Miss is no slouch.  The Rebels sit at No. 10 in the CFP rankings and their only loss came in Tuscaloosa way back in September. Since that loss they’ve been on a tear. Last week’s 38-35 win over Texas A&M was a bit of a scare but should provide plenty of motivation to prove a point against Georgia.

This game sets up to be a good old-fashioned, fall SEC classic, in which both teams have every incentive to show the CFP that their conference still reigns supreme.

If Georgia wins big, perhaps the CFP will reassess its position on the Bulldogs. If the Rebels steal one in Athens, a shake-up in the rankings is sure to follow.

Bud Parmalee’s Pick: Georgia -11.0 (-110)

It’s a big line considering that both teams are considered “top-10” no matter which poll you’re using. But in the end, there’s a simple truth that can’t be – shouldn’t be – overlooked: Ole Miss doesn’t have a defense that’s capable of stopping Georgia’s offense. The Bulldogs rank inside the top-10 in most key offensive categories, while the Rebel defense rarely finds itself ranked inside the top-50 in anything that matters. Specifically, Georgia has the country’s very best 3^rd-down-conversion offense, and it’s pitted against an Ole Miss D that comes in at No. 86 when it comes to stopping its opponents on 3^rd down. That’s not a recipe for stopping a team that hasn’t lost a regular season game since the pandemic and that might be ticked off about the lack of national respect they’re getting. Take Georgia and confidently lay the points, as the ‘Dogs big bite will bark loudly at the CFP.

CFB: No. 3 Michigan @ No. 10 Penn State

How not fun is it to be a fan of the Michigan Wolverines this week? They’ve got the Connor Stalions hanging like a dark cloud. They’ve somehow been leapfrogged by bitter rival Ohio State in the first CFP rankings. And now, they’re getting set to face the first “real” opponent they’ve seen all season long in Penn State.

Gulp.

It’s time to see just how good Michigan really is (or isn’t). But the tricky part is that if the Wolverines don’t rise to the occasion, there are plenty of reasons – rather, distractions – as to why. Trickier yet is that given their slight dip in the rankings – the only rankings that really matter this time of year – there’s zero margin for error. One loss and the Wolverines, with Florida State, Washington, Texas and Alabama all breathing down their neck, will likely fall out of favor with regard to the CFP. And let’s face it, if there’s a logical way to boot Michigan out of the final four, there are no shortage of folks who will be happy to do so. Nobody involved with college football wants a team shrouded in controversy to somehow sneak into the national title game. As such, Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines had best be perfect from here on out.

But can they? Better yet, will they?

Bud Parmalee’s Pick: UNDER 45.0 (-110)

There are too many unknowns that surround this game to feel overly comfortable about the higher ranked Wolverines taking care of business. Michigan (then No. 3) rolled Penn State (then No. 7) last season 41, but a lot has changed. Aside from the aforementioned drama, the Nittany Lions are at home this season, and their defense is markedly better. Besides, the one thing everyone can confidently say about Michigan, is that its defense historically outstanding, allowing opponents an astounding 6.7 points per game. The Wolverines also allow the fewest yards per game. Penn State, coincidentally, ranks second in the country in yards allowed per game and third when it comes to points. The total of 45.0 might seem low for two top-10 schools but remember that both teams are built on defense. Given all that’s surrounding Michigan, along with the fact that both schools have powerhouse defenses, and the under is the way to go here. Look for a 23-20 kind of game, where either team could come out on top.

NFL: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud had arguably the best performance any rookie quarterback has ever during last week’s win over the Buccaneers. Stroud threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns with zero interceptions and a completion rate of 71 percent. It was a dazzling performance.

On the season, Stroud has thrown for 14 touchdowns and just one interception. The second-overall pick in last year’s draft has flourished and has the Texans in the running for a wild card spot. Which team are they currently chasing? The Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals opened the season 1-3, but they are 4-0 since that slow start. Keep in mind, this is a team that made the Super Bowl in 2021 and the AFC Championship Game in 2022. They seem to be firing on all cylinders and are arguably the hottest team in the league at the current moment.

Last week, they knocked off the Buffalo Bills by a score of 24-18. Quarterback Joe Burrow threw for an impressive 348 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions. The Bengals currently hold the No. 7 seed in the playoffs and they will need a win on Sunday to keep it.

The game will take place in Cincinnati and the Bengals are currently 6.5-point favorites. Since Week 4, the Bengals are 4-0 against the spread. They will need to defeat Stroud and the Texans by more than a touchdown in order to cover it this time.

Will the clock strike midnight for the rookie QB and the Texans or will they be able to compete with the red-hot Bengals? While the Bengals certainly pose an unfamiliar challenge for the Texans, it’s safe to assume that Stroud will continue to play at a high level.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Cincinnati -6.5 (-110)

The key to this game is defense. Can the Texans defense, the same defense that gave up 37 points to Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, stop Burrow and the Bengals? Houston’s defense is currently ranked 14th in the league, giving up 20.6 points per game. Cincinnati is just above them at No. 12, giving up 20.3 PPG. However, in their last three games, the Bengals have given up just 16.0 PPG, while Houston has given up 21.7. Now, stats like that can be misleading. However, during those three weeks, the Bengals have faced opponents with a combined record of 14-10, while the Texans last three opponents have a combined record of just 9-16. That, coupled with the fact that they are only 2-1 in that time period, indicates that while this may be a closer game than expected, the Bengals have the edge. Expect Joe Burrow and company to get their fifth-straight win.

NFL: New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders

Both the New York Jets and the Las Vegas Raiders look very different heading into Week 10 than they did heading into Week 1. It’s night and day.

At the start of the season, the Jets were already thinking about what their Super Bowl ring might look like. They acquired future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers in what was the biggest trade in recent memory, which had everyone dreaming big.

Their season took a turn, however, when Rodgers went down with a torn Achilles just four minutes into his Jets debut. They were forced to turn to Zach Wilson, who has shown flashes of being a decent QB, but has been below average overall.

As for the Raiders, they have seen even more change. Not only did they fire their head coach in Josh McDaniels prior to last week, but they also made a change at quarterback, as they benched veteran Jimmy Garoppolo for fourth-round pick Aidan O’Connell.

With McDaniels gone, the Raiders have made Antonio Pierce the interim head coach. In their first game as a QB/head coach duo, O’Connell and Pierce stomped the New York Giants 30-6. Now, they will remain at home to face another, slightly better, New York team.

Obviously, the Jets offense hasn’t been as advertised. They rank 30th in total points per game with just 16.5. But their defense has helped keep the team’s head above water. New York’s defense is currently ranked eighth as far as points allowed, giving up just 19.5 per game.

On paper, they should keep Las Vegas in check, but it’s hard to tell what the Raiders are at this point. Is the hype around Antonio Pierce legit, or will the Jets defense quiet the storm?

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Las Vegas ML (-110)

The game is currently a pick ‘em, meaning the line is razor thin. The Raiders are at home, though, where they are 3-1 so far this season. In addition to a close game line, the over/under is also extremely low at just 36.5 points. If both teams get to just 19 points, the over will hit. Not exactly the most exciting “Sunday Night Football” matchup, but a good game can be expected. Both teams will be more than fired up and both have good enough records to where every game matters. In a game like this, things like home-field advantage, crowd noise and motivation factor in even more. The Raiders win in all three categories. So in a close “Sunday Night Football” game, take the Raiders to win.