Football Friday!
November 3, 2023
SuperBook Sports previews the weekend ahead
CFB: No. 5 Washington @ No. 20 USC
The reasons to watch Washington at USC this weekend are numerous: This is one of the Pac-12’s last hoorahs; it’s last year’s Heisman winner versus this year’s Heisman favorite; it’s a chance for USC to show that the Trojans are better than their No. 20 national ranking; it’s one more week for the Huskies to keep the pressure on Ohio State, Michigan and Florida State for a spot in the College Football Playoffs.
Simply put, there’s a lot on the line.
Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the current Heisman favorite, completed 21 of 37 passes for 369 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception last week against Stanford. That marked his 5th game this season with four or more passing TDs. Can he keep it up against a sub-par Trojan defense? Penix is going up against Celeb Williams, last year’s Heisman winner, who most have tabbed as the can’t-miss, first-pick-lock in the 2024 NFL Draft. Talk about star power.
Furthermore., the over-under on this game is set at a whopping 77.0. At that rate, it’s not advisable to take too many bathroom or beer breaks. For that matter, don’t blink, as you’ll surely miss something.
Forget all the hype, though (momentarily), and get right in order to make the correct wager.
Bud Parmalee’s Pick: Washington -3 (-110)
Seventy-seven points!?! Yes, there will be a lot of firepower featured at the famed Coliseum on Saturday. But if Washington is truly a top-5 team, they’ll find a way to slow down the Trojans. Nobody is expecting the same from USC, but still, taking the over anywhere in the neighborhood of 80 points feels irresponsible. As such, let’s play this one the old-fashioned way. USC is not the team everyone thought to begin the season. On the flip side, Washington is desperately trying to show that it belongs in the CFP. The Huskies are better than USC on both sides of the ball, averaging 501.3 total yards of offense per game (versus USC’s 482.2), and allowing opponent’s 20 fewer yards per game than USC. The differences aren’t major, but with Ohio State-Michigan pending (someone has to lose) and both Miami and Florida waiting for Florida State, there’s opportunity on the horizon for Washington. The Huskies aren’t about to bow out if the conversation. They’ll win… and cover.
CFB: No. 14 LSU @ No. 8 Alabama
Throughout the great history of the SEC, this matchup has often signified the best-of-the-best in college football. The winner of Alabama-LSU often sits in the driver’s seat of the SEC West, which leads to a spot in the SEC Championship Game, which generally results in an invite to the CFP.
But this season feels different. Alabama (7-1) doesn’t seem invincible. LSU (6-2) is good but hasn’t really entered the national conversation just yet; the Tigers sit behind both the Tide and Ole Miss (6-1) in the SEC West standings. All the talk hovers around the likes of Georgia, Michigan State and Ohio State.
That can’t sit well with the Tide or Tigers.
The SEC isn’t the best conference in college football for no good reason. In any given year, anyone in the SEC has the opportunity to beat anyone. Within the conference, the records and rankings can be tossed into the trash; rivalries are what matter. Look no further than last season, when LSU narrowly beat Alabama, who was, at the time, a 13.5-point favorite. There’s a decent chance whoever wins this game will get a shot at Georgia in the SEC title bout, so buckle in, because this one matters. A lot.
Bud Parmalee’s Pick: Alabama -3.0 (-110)
Don’t look now, but the Crimson Tide have won six games in a row. Ever stop to think what the rankings would look like if Alabama hadn’t lost to Texas in Week 2? Is there any way a Nick Saban team isn’t in the top-4 if they’re undefeated heading into November? Not a chance. And while nobody should ever dismiss LSU and their Heisman hopeful quarterback Jayden Danniels, the Tigers have been in Alabama’s crosshairs ever since last year’s matchup. Alabama would like nothing more than to settle the score with LSU, and then proceed to the SEC championship where they’ll have the chance to show Georgia who’s boss in the Southeastern Conference. Don’t bet against Saban, not in November, not now. Take the Tide to cover the spread, setting up a showdown with the Bulldogs in the conference finale.
NFL: New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders
The New York Giants are 2-6. After making the divisional round of the playoffs just a season ago, it’s been a surprising fall from grace.
Quarterback Daniel Jones has not been up to par, as he has thrown six interceptions and just two touchdowns in his five games played this season. Despite having the worst statistical offense in the league with just 11.9 points per game, the Giants have a chance to rebound after last week’s atrocious finish.
Up 10-7 with 28 seconds to go, the Giants missed a field goal that gave Zach Wilson and the Jets just enough time to tie the game. In overtime, the Jets prevailed and what should’ve been an ugly win turned into an even uglier loss.
The Giants ran the ball well last week, totaling 203 rushing yards. But they had just seven passing yards for the entirety of the game. If they want to win this week, that stat has to change.
The Giants will head to Las Vegas to play a Raider team that has had an eventful week to say the least. Josh McDaniels was fired on Tuesday less than two seasons into his six-year contract with the team. After an unsuccessful first season and a brutal start to the 2023 season, the Raiders have decided to move on from their head coach.
They have also seemingly moved on from quarterback Jimmy Garropolo, who they acquired in the offseason. Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell will get the start against the G-Men.
It will be the second start this season for the Purdue alum, the first one coming against the Los Angeles Chargers on Oct. 1. In that game O’Connell threw for 238 yards and rushed for a touchdown. Now, he will get another chance to prove himself against a Giants team that is bottom 10 in points allowed.
Who will come out on top? Will it be O’Connell and the new look Raiders? Or will Danny Dimes and company get it done?
Steve Quinne’s Pick: New York ML (+105)
Statistically, the odds favor the Giants in this one. The Raiders give up the third-most rushing yards per game. If New York can run the ball like they did last week, Las Vegas could be in serious trouble. Now, in fairness, the Giants are ninth-worst against the run. However, the Raiders are dead last in rushing yards per game with 70. Both offenses have fairly similar passing offenses and defenses, and they are currently giving up the exact same points per game of 23.4. It’s an even matchup and the line reflects that fact. The Raiders are just 1.5-point favorites despite being the home team. The Giants have had their struggles this season, but a change at both head coach and quarterback hasn’t favored teams in the past. It may be close, but go with the Giants for this one.
NFL: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
“Sunday Night Football” in Week 9 features two of the most-electrifying teams in the NFL. It also showcases two of the NFL’s highest-paid QBs, who will face off in a thrilling matchup with big stakes. The winner may go on to win their division, while the loser will have to crawl their way out of an unexpected hole.
Hyped up yet? Let’s just say the NFL picked the right week to schedule this one. If this game would’ve happened in Week 5, that sort of hype would not have been present in the slightest.
“Here comes Joe Burrow and the 1-3 Bengals” doesn’t sound very appealing to viewers. Since then, though, the Bengals are 3-0 and are seemingly a top team once again. They are currently a 2.0-point favorite against the visiting Bills.
Buffalo comes into this game 5-3, but the Bills have won five of seven. The Bills not only get the attention of a top team in the NFL, but the stats prove it, too.
They currently have the fourth-ranked offense and the third-ranked defense in the league. Those rankings seem even more impressive when in comparison to the Bengals season. Cincinnati is 24th on offense and 16th on defense.
So, the Bills should win this game, right?
Well, more recent stats tell a different story. Since Week 5, the Bills are ranked 13th on offense and 12th on defense. Meanwhile the Bengals are ranked 10th on offense and sixth on defense, higher than Buffalo on both accounts.
Maybe the Bengals have just played easier teams? Well, the opposite is true. The combined record of the Bengals last three opponents is 11-12, while the Bills last three opponents combine for a record of 7-16.
The Bengals are the hotter team at the moment. But that doesn’t mean this one will be a blowout by any means. The Bills will put up a fight as they usually do. They haven’t lost a game this year by more than one score.
Steve Quinne’s Pick: Cincinnati ML (-130)
The Bengals are the home team and they need a win to keep their hopes of catching the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North alive. The Bills can’t quite figure out who they are. One week, they look like a Super Bowl team. The next, they’re inexplicably losing to the Patriots. Expect Cincinnati to come out on top in a close one.
