Steve Quinne previews the biggest games on this week’s NFL slate

It will be yet another below-freezing day in Buffalo, New York, something the Miami Dolphins aren’t necessarily used to. In fact, earlier this week, Mike McDaniel was called out for having “never seen snow.” McDaniel responded by wearing a t-shirt that wrote “I wish it were colder.”

All of this is to say that the AFC East rivalry between the Dolphins and Bills is just as strong as ever. The Dolphins got the best of the Bills in Miami in Week 3, but this time around will likely be different.

Buffalo is a 7.0-point home favorite not only because of their four-game winning streak, but also because of the Dolphins poor play over the last two weeks. Miami has lost back-to-back games to the 49ers and Chargers, and it only gets tougher this week.

As Miami fights for a playoff berth, Buffalo will try to clinch one. Buffalo averages 27.2 PPG (fourth in the NFL) while Miami averages 24.3 (ninth). They are both high-powered offenses, but they’ll be battling the elements.

Buffalo is used to it. Miami isn’t. Despite McDaniel’s good attitude, nothing seems to be in Miami’s favor.

Steve Quinne’s pick: Buffalo -7.0 (-110)

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As shocking as it may be, the Saints-Falcons game has playoff implications in Week 15. The Falcons are 5-8 and the Saints are 4-9, both are near the bottom of the NFC. But each of them have a pretty realistic chance at making the playoffs with a win on Sunday.

That of course also banks on the Buccaneers losing to the Bengals, which is also a very real possibility. Tampa Bay is only 6-7, yet the Bucs are atop the division. Tom Brady may host a playoff game with a losing record.

Or maybe the Falcons will? Atlanta would still be below the Buccaneers with the win-loss combo, due to Tampa Bay beating the Falcons earlier in the year, but it would make the Week 18 matchup between the two very interesting.

Or maybe it’s the Saints, who can somehow surge to a playoff spot? Despite having a worse record, the Saints will be favored in this game for one reason. Desmond Ridder will be starting at quarterback for the Falcons. Ridder is a rookie out of Cincinnati and will be taking over Marcus Mariota’s duties as the signal caller.

Both teams need the win to stay alive, but Atlanta’s chances of making the playoffs are slightly higher at 9% compared to 1% for the Saints. Regardless, the Falcons getting points in this one, even with a first timer at quarterback, feels off. They’ll keep it close, if not win outright.

Steve Quinne’s pick: Atlanta +4.0 (-110)

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Fourteen points? That’s a huge line, but maybe it should be even bigger.

Sure, the Texans looked like a competent team last week against the Cowboys, where they were an even bigger underdog, but they still lost to fall to 1-11-1 on the season. The ownership group has no interest in winning at this point and why would they?

They can start thinking about the first-overall pick and have Roger Goodell start the jersey-making process. The only thing that would make this season worse for the Texans is not getting the No. 1 pick.

As for the Chiefs, they started off strong against the Broncos, getting off to a 27-0 lead. As the game progressed, however, Denver came within one score and it became an interesting finish toward the end. Kansas City ended up winning the game, but that locker room speech couldn’t have been pretty.

Andy Reid and the Chiefs are going to want to get back on a roll when they go to Houston to play another struggling team. The Texans puts up just 16.2 points per game, which just can’t make the 29.5 that the Chiefs average.

It should be a blowout. The Chiefs will be a little angry after last week’s performance. They will be looking to put on a show.

Steve Quinne’s pick: Kansas City -14.0 (-110)

Prop Shop

Justin Herbert over 300.5 passing yards (-115)

An over/under that eclipses the 300-yard barrier is a lofty one, but the Chargers quarterback is up to the task. Herbert is coming off a game in which he threw for 367 yards against the Dolphins. The week before, he passed for 335 yards against the Raiders. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back from injury, the L.A. passing game is clicking. Toss in the fact that Tennessee has the NFL’s second-worst pass defense and the over sounds really, really good.

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Derrick Henry over 98.5 rushing yards (-118)

While the Chargers are going to want to throw it all over the field (see above), the Titans are going to want to do what they do best – give the ball to Derrick Henry. After two subpar performances, the running back got back on track last week with 121 yards on the ground against the Jaguars. That came on just 17 carries, as the Titans fell behind. He’ll get more chances this week, as Mike Vrabel and company will try to keep Justin Herbert on the sidelines. Look for Tennessee to attack a Chargers defense that is 28th in the NFL against the run.

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Ravens/Browns under 36.0 (-110)

It’s never pretty when the Ravens travel to Cleveland, where they are still loathed for abandoning the city more than 20 years ago. This time around, it’ll also be ugly on the field, as Baltimore is struggling offensively with Tyler Huntley at quarterback. In two games, both wins, he’s managed just 10 and 16 points, respectively. That might be enough to beat the Browns, however, who mustered only 10 in a loss last week to the Bengals.

Around the Nation

Headlines to note heading into the college football weekend

Thrown Overboard – While it’s not the pressure cooker of Alabama, Clemson or Ohio State, there are still expectations at Navy. After losing to Army to finish the season 4-8, head coach Ken Niumatalolo was shown the door. He’s the winningest coach in Midshipmen history, but a 4-10 mark against the other service academies in recent years sealed his fate.

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He Won’t Go Away – Bobby Petrino is certainly tenacious. Just when it seems like his coaching career has fizzled, he reappears out of nowhere. After three seasons at Missouri State, the coach is returning to the FBS ranks. He landed a job as the offensive coordinator at UNLV.

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Returning Home – Big-name former NFL players getting into college football coaching is all the rage. First, it was Deion Sanders, who is now at Colorado. Now, it’s Drew Brees. The former quarterback is returning to his alma mater, taking an interim assistant coach position at Purdue.