SuperBook Sports previews the weekend ahead

NFL: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts game features a scenario that feels more like a playoff game than a regular season one. Why? Well, whichever team wins is in the playoffs and whichever team loses is out.

In addition to that drama, the winner of the game can potentially host a game on wild card weekend if the Jacksonville Jaguars were to lose. It’s as high stakes as it gets and should be one of the most-watched games of the week.

Both of these teams have had surprising seasons, to say the least. Both teams came into the season with promising but inexperienced rookie quarterbacks. C.J. Stroud for the Texans and Anthony Richardson for the Colts.

Unfortunately for the Colts, Richardson suffered a grade-three AC joint sprain in Week 6 and was ruled out for the season. As a result, veteran quarterback Gardner Minshew was asked to step in and has done a fantastic job.

At the beginning of the year, the Colts had a projected over/under of just 6.5 wins. Now, they have a chance to win their 10^th and make the playoffs.

Similarly, the Texans had a projected over/under of just 5.5 wins. That means this is a matchup between two teams with underdog stories and everything on the line. Who gets the win?

The Texans are currently favored by one point heading into this game despite being on the road and losing to the Colts in their Week 2 matchup. That seems a bit odd, but there are a number of reasons for this line.

For starters, the last time the Colts played a team that didn’t have their backup QB starting was in Week 12 against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. Furthermore, they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 3 when they upset the Baltimore Ravens 22-19.

Despite Minshew’s heroics, he is undoubtedly the inferior quarterback in this matchup. The Texans may have Stroud back from a concussion.

They will be without some of their star wide receivers, however, as Noah Brown and Tank Dell are out. That being said, they were in a similar situation last week against the Tennessee Titans and they won that game by a margin of 23 points.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Houston ML (-120)

The Colts are a good team, but they won’t be enough to stop C.J. Stroud and the Texans. Expect the Houston defense to be all over Gardner Minshew and for the Texans to handle business on the road and clinch a playoff berth.

NFL: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

The best part of the NFL regular season arrives this weekend – endless scenarios and countless teams fighting for playoff contention. The nightcap on Sunday features a thrilling matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, with the winner claiming the AFC East title.

The Bills will be on the road and are currently favored by 2.5 points. Why? Because the Bills are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.

Buffalo has won four straight games to get to 10-6, yet they still haven’t clinched a playoff berth. It’s one of the most-bizarre scenarios in recent history.

With a win, the Bills can be as high as the No. 2 seed. Meanwhile, a loss could potentially knock them out of the playoffs entirely. That’s the epitome of high stake.

It’s not quite as meaningful for the Dolphins, but their hopes of hosting a playoff game are still on the line. Miami can also be as high as the No. 2 seed with a win and can drop as far as the No. 6 with a loss. It’s also a possibility that a loss could mean that they would have to play the Bills again in the wild-card round.

This is arguably the most anticipated matchup of the week and is the nightcap for good reason. But who comes out on top?

Not only are the Bills on a four-game winning streak, but they also beat the Dolphins once already this year. In Week 4, Buffalo dominated Miami by a score of 48-20. Of course, everything looks different in Week 18. Or does it?

The Bills have one less win and the Dolphins still looks like a powerhouse. Can Buffalo repeat history or will Miami get the edge this time?

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Buffalo -3.0 (EV)

The Bills with the spread is the way to go. It’s essentially a must-win game for Josh Allen and Buffalo and the Bills have had Miami’s number in the past. The Bills are a favorite on the road for a reason. Expect Allen and the Bills to torch Miami’s D in a close and exciting “Sunday Night Football” matchup.

NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Everything about the matchup between the Jaguars and Titans points toward a Jacksonville win.

For starters, Jacksonville has everything to gain – namely an AFC South title and a home opener in the postseason. The Jags also have everything to lose, as a loss could potentially eliminate them from the playoffs all together; if the Jags lose, they’ll be dependent on other outcomes – a Steelers loss plus a Broncos loss (or tie) plus a Texans-Colts game that not end in a tie.

Confused?

For the Jags, the simple solution is the best one: Win and they’re in.

Better yet, all signs are pointing toward a Trevor Lawrence return. The Jags were reeling not that long ago but picked up a win last weekend with Lawrence on the sideline resting his injured shoulder – an ideal scenario heading into the final week and ideally the postseason.

Feeling good about Jacksonville?

Why is it that whenever all the signs point one way, there’s that slight pause? There’s no scientific reason – the Jags are light years ahead of the Titans, without a doubt – but NFL is an unpredictable league, especially when it comes to the AFC South. Does Tennessee have it in them to play spoiler, even when the game means nothing to them? Since it’s potentially the final home game of Derrick Henry’s phenomenal career with the Titans, don’t the Tennessee faithful want to see him go out with a bang? Does Will Levis want to show he’s the future in Tennessee? With 11 losses already in tow, it’s quite possible that the Titans go away quietly, but again, stranger things have happened in the NFC South.

Everything should point toward a Jags win, which is why the -3.5 line feels a little suspicious. But that’s for you to decide.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Jacksonville -3.5 (-110)

Overthinking this one is a mistake. It’s tempting, but don’t get too smart here. Jacksonville is a solid football team with a bright future. Despite the sentimental theory that Derrick Henry will ruin the party for the Jags, there’s also the notion that he’d just as soon go into the offseason healthy and rested. And don’t waste your time with a moneyline bet at -200; if Trevor Lawrence and Co. can’t win this one going away, none of us understand this whacky league.