SuperBook Sports previews the holiday week

CFB: Armed Forces Bowl: James Madison Dukes vs. Air Force Falcons

While nobody ever roots “against” a service academy, it’s going to be difficult not to root “for” James Madison in this year’s Armed Forces Bowl – and that has nothing to do with the Falcons or their fine group of young men.

It’s just that JMU is one of the most intriguing stories in college football this season. To begin, the Dukes have been making the jump from an FCS program to an FBS program, which is never an easy task. Impressively, however, they’ve been excellent in this transition, going 11-1 on the season, their second and final year of the move. As many rules that apply(ish) to college football, one that makes transitioning programs ineligible for bowl games was going to keep the Dukes from competing in the postseason. Typically speaking, schools in transitions rarely need to worry about it, as they take their lumps en route to playing with the big boys, but James Madison flipped the script, becoming somewhat of a national darling in the process. As luck (or common sense?) would have it, an odd number of bowl eligible teams made it possible for JMU to accept an invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl. And here we are.

With success, however, comes change. And as big as the change from FCS to FBS might be, what’s happened to the 11-1 Dukes is even bigger. Gone is head coach Curt Cignetti. Gone are JMU’s offensive and defensive coordinators. Gone is the bulk of the rest of the staff. And as is the case with any successful program in the country, a boatload of JMU’s top players are hitting the transfer portal, including quarterback and Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud.

Ouch. 

That’s a lot of change for a program already “in transition” and the Air Force Falcons certainly won’t make JMU’s tumultuous time any easier. Troy Calhoun’s Falcons are never easy to prepare for, and with the potential return of quarterback Zac Larrier, the Air Force poses an even bigger challenge. Remember, the Falcons were undefeated up until Larrier went out with an injury; without him they went 0-4 to finish the season.

Given all the factors involved, the Armed Forces Bowl could be one of the most interesting matchups of bowl season.

Bud Parmalee’s Pick: Air Force Moneyline +110

Capping an 11-1 season with a bowl game win – especially when the coach (and everyone else) bolts for greener pastures – is a wonderful holiday story. But don’t let your heart make your bets; that’s a job better suited for your head. JMU be asking Damian Wroblewski, the offensive line coach, to take over duties as head coach, offensive coordinator and play caller. With all due respect to Wroblewski, that’s a big ask, especially considering the opponent. Calhoun is one of the best head coaches in college football and has been for years. With so many moving parts on the JMU sidelines, the precision and discipline that typically accompanies Air Force Football will be difficult to overcome. Air Force is 7-3 in their last 10 bowl games and enter this one having won their last four bowl games. Yet, somehow, the Dukes are a 2-point favorite. Don’t buy into the feel-good story; put your money on the Falcons.  

CFB: Las Vegas Bowl: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Utah Utes

The biggest question heading into this year’s Las Vegas Bowl might sound funny, since the game will take place right in the oddsmakers’ back yard. Still, it’s worth asking.

Why in the world is Utah a 6.5-point favorite?

The Utes limped to the finish line, winning just two of their last five games, and one of those wins was a squeaker against Colorado in Utah for the season finale – not exactly the way a typically proud program wants to head toward bowl season. Utah caught the attention of the nation by beating Florida in its opener, and even bested USC back when the Trojans were still somewhat highly regarded. But other than that, and even though they compiled eight wins, it felt as if something was off in Salt Lake this year. Often known for its fast-paced offense, Utah rarely lit up the scoreboard this year. To point, starting quarterback Bryson Barnes tossed just 12 touchdowns to nine interceptions.

Barnes, who plans on transferring next season, still allegedly plans to play in the Las Vegas Bowl. That may or may not be a good thing, but the same can’t be said for too many of his teammates. Plenty of Utes are headed for the NFL and don’t plan on playing Saturday; among them are key players Cole Bishop (DB), Keaton Bills (OL), and running back/safety Sione Vaki.

By no means is Northwestern a juggernaut, but they are riding a bit higher than Utah. The Wildcats won four of their last five games; the lone loss came against Iowa, the eventual Big Ten West champ. Even that game was close, as the Hawkeyes escaped with a 10-7 win. Like many of their Big Ten cohorts, Northwestern is built on defense. In three of their final five games, the Wildcats defense held opponents below 15 points three times. And while Northwestern doesn’t have an elite offense, they somehow scored 45 in their season finale against Illinois, who led the entire country in points allowed at just 12.8 points allowed per game.

The oddsmakers in Vegas always know something, but something about an uninspiring Utah team heading into the Las Vegas Bowl as a 6.5-point favorite seems amiss. 

Bud Parmalee’s Pick: Northwestern +6.5 (-110)

Perhaps Utah is just that much better on paper, even without their NFL draft picks and transfers. Perhaps there’s a biased toward recent history. Or, perhaps, this game plays out the way it actually should, where a rising, potentially hungrier Wildcats team gives an effort that makes an already struggling Utah team struggle just a bit more. Defense has carried Northwestern, and that will be the case once again – especially against a team that only put up 23 points against Colorado who allowed a whopping 44.5 point per game on the season. If you smell a rat, bet the under (40.5). But if you like the logic that surrounds this matchup, take Northwestern and the points.

NFL: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

The New England Patriots will head into Denver on Sunday night to play the Denver Broncos. If that was said in 2015, you would’ve guessed the two teams would have 20 combined wins. But a lot can change in eight years.

Instead, these two squads have combined for just 10 wins through 15 weeks of the season. The Patriots are currently 3-11, which in turn means that the Broncos are .500 with a record of 7-7.

Since Week 8, the Patriots have lost six out of seven and the Broncos have won five out of seven. Two ships heading in opposite directions.

The Broncos are currently favored by 7.0 points. In order to keep their playoff hopes alive, Denver will most likely have to win their final three games beginning with the Patriots.

Despite their 3-11 record, that is easier said than done. In their last three games, the Patriots have the eighth-ranked defense in the NFL. It seems like every week head coach Bill Belichick dials up a scheme to get in the mind of the other team.

However, their offense is what’s been holding them back. New England ranks dead last in points per game with just 13.3.

The Broncos will be looking to rebound with a win after last week’s embarrassment to the Detroit Lions in which they lost 42-17 – a game that was never close. In all but one game this season, the Broncos have scored 24-plus points following a loss. This one should go in a similar direction, especially because the Broncos will be returning to their home city after being on the road for three straight weeks.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Denver -7.0 (-110)

The Broncos haven’t lost at home since Week 5. That was on Oct. 8. They will be looking to keep that streak alive as their playoff aspirations are on the line. Will they win by 7.0? That may feel risky considering the way the Patriots defense has been playing. However, it’s hard to imagine the Broncos laying an egg against a three-win team when it matters most. Take the Broncos to win this one by a touchdown.

NFL: Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

What in the world got into the Raiders last time out? And is it possibly sustainable?

No, they’re not going to score 63 points again, but what they did to the Chargers was simply amazing. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell threw four touchdown passes, Las Vegas scored twice on defense and they were up 63-7 at one point.

The massacre led to Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley getting dismissed and the Raiders finding a bit of momentum after losing three straight games. At 6-8, the playoffs are a near mathematical impossibility, but they could still get up for a rivalry game in Kansas City against the hated Chiefs. They lost the first time this season to K.C. by two touchdowns, so revenge is on their minds.

Speaking of the Chiefs, they got a much-needed 27-17 win over the Patriots a week ago. Patrick Mahomes still has never lost three games in a row in his NFL career, and Kansas City put some important distance between themselves and Denver in the AFC West. Another division title looks all but inevitable.

While the Chiefs offense still looked clunky at times in New England, they’ll get a huge reinforcement back this week in running back Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco’s missed the last two games with a shoulder injury, and he’s clearly one of Kansas City’s top offensive weapons. His last time out against the Packers he went for 110 yards and a touchdown after scoring two touchdowns the week before against the Raiders. With Mahomes not quite looking like himself, expect the Chiefs to feed him early and often. 

While Mahomes and Travis Kelce need to get back on the same page, Las Vegas might be a good team to do it against. In his career, Mahomes is 10-1 against the Raiders, with the only loss coming in the COVID year of 2020. He’s thrown 29 touchdowns against the silver and black, with just three interceptions.

Mahomes has four outings with at least four touchdown passes and in one of those games he threw five. He loves playing against these guys. Will it be an early Christmas present to Chiefs fans or can the Raiders come in and play the role of The Grinch?

Pick: Las Vegas +10.0 (-110)

As mentioned, something is a little off with Kelce, and without him playing at the top of his game, the Chiefs aren’t the same. He hasn’t found the end zone since Nov. 20 and has just one touchdown over his last seven games. In that stretch, he put up just 28 receiving yards against the Patriots, 44 against the Eagles and 14 versus the Dolphins. Teams have found a way to contain him. Plus, Kansas City has only won by 11 or more points just four times this season. They’re not blowing teams out like we’re used to seeing. Since Oct. 22, they would’ve only covered this big of a spread one time. The Raiders are 3-3 in the six games since firing Josh McDaniels and have only lost by double-digits one time. It’s hard to see them pulling the upset at Arrowhead Stadium, but they also won’t get laughed out of the building. Expect this one to be taken by a touchdown or even a field goal margin.

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers

A potential Super Bowl preview to cap off Christmas night? Sign us up.

Entering Week 16, the 49ers and the Ravens are the No. 1 seeds in the NFC and AFC, respectively. Both sport 11-3 records and the top-three MVP candidates reside in San Francisco and Baltimore. Niners QB Brock Purdy is a -215 favorite, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is +500 and 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is +800.

These are the two best teams in the NFL. The league has to be licking its chops this one gets such a big stage. The two played an epic game in Super Bowl XLVII a decade ago, as John prevailed over Jim in a battle of the Harbaugh brothers. John is still in Baltimore, while Jim pursues a nation title at Michigan. That Kyle Shanahan guy is pretty good, though, and this could be another classic. 

The Niners have won six games in a row after a rare midseason slump where they dropped three-straight contests. In those six games, they’ve won every single one by double digits, something that’s hard to wrap your mind around. They’ve prevailed by 31, 13, 18, 23, 12 and 16 points. And those include some wins over good teams, topping the Jaguars, Eagles and Seahawks twice.

McCaffrey has gone for 100 yards on the ground in three of those games and scored seven total touchdowns. Purdy is slicing and dicing, throwing for 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions over that stretch. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel has scored at least two touchdowns in three-straight games and seven overall. He had three in a 42-19 beatdown of Philadelphia. This team looks unstoppable right now, so even though the Ravens are good, 5.5 points feel like a small spread. 

But don’t sleep on Baltimore, they’ve won four in a row and are 8-1 over their last nine games. The only loss for the Ravens during that stretch was a 33-31 stunner to the Browns where things went very wrong late, blowing a 14-point lead. They’ve demolished the Lions by 32, crushed the Seahawks by 34, downed the Bengals by 14 and handled the Jaguars by 16 points.

Jackson’s legs are just a big of a threat as his arm, as he went for 97 yards on 12 carries in Jacksonville last week and 70 yards on 11 carries against the Rams the week before. He’s looking like he did in 2019, when he captured the NFL MVP. The defense has held their opponent to 10 points or fewer in three of their last five games and limited a scary Jaguars offense to just seven a week ago. This is truly setting up for a heavyweight battle.

Pick: San Francisco -5.5 (-110)

You have to factor in Baltimore traveling across the country during the holidays for a game they want to win, but it’s not totally critical. They play the Dolphins in Week 17, and a win that day all but assures them the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the tiebreaker over Miami. They’re coming off a long trip to Florida, and this is an easy spot for them to look ahead. The Niners are 5-1 at home and all five wins have come by at least 12 points. Their average margin of victory at Levi’s Stadium this season is 20.8 points per game, absolutely torching the measly 5.5 points they’re favored by against the Ravens. San Francisco is simply cruising, and they won’t be stopped in a contest that doesn’t matter all that much to Baltimore. Purdy, McCaffrey and Samuel stay hot in a 31-20 victory.