Citrus Bowl Preview: Tennessee vs. Iowa

Going 10-3 as a member of the Big Ten and going 8-4 while playing in the Southeast Conference aren’t necessarily the same, but perhaps those results are somewhat comparable. Both conferences are perennially strong, but which is stronger year to year or from top to bottom varies. And that’s what makes this year’s Citrus Bowl, where Iowa will match up with Tennessee, so intriguing.

Iowa enters the game as the No. 20 team in the country, and it’s a ranking that’s well deserved. The Hawkeyes lost just one game in Big Ten West – a strange 12-10 home loss to Minnesota, a team that went 5-7 on the season – and were blanked by both Penn State (31-0) at and Michigan (26-0) in the conference championship game. The Hawkeyes are a good team, and there’s no shame in losing to Michigan (No. 1) or the Nittany Lions (No. 10).

And while Tennessee comes in ranked 25^th in the country, comparing the schedules of the two teams is somewhat of an apples-to-oranges examination.

Playing in the almighty SEC, Tennessee’s losses read like a short list of the college football’s elite. The Vols lost to Alabama, Georgia and Missouri – in other words No. 4, No. 6 and No. 9. They’re only loss outside of the Top-25 came courtesy of rival Florida in the Swamp. Like Iowa, however, the Vols lack a big win over a highly ranked opponent.

As such, how one views this game largely comes down to how one feels about the quality of the Big Ten versus the SEC. And as is often the case with bowl games in 2023, a lot of what matters most is which school will be filling a full roster. Tennessee is loaded with future NFL players, so there’s always the question of whether most, some or none will sit out of the bowl game. Vols coach Josh Heupel was quoted as saying he hopes “the bulk of our guys” will be suiting up – something to keep an eye on as the New Year’s Day approaches. 

With a line that favors Tennessee by more than a touchdown, clearly the oddsmakers believe in both the SEC and a “mostly complete” Volunteers roster.

Bud Parmalee’s Pick: Tennessee -8.0 (-110)

Toss out for a moment the conference, the transfers and the NFL bound players. Instead, consider offense – something that factors big into most bowl games. In short, Tennessee has a far superior offense, as Iowa compiled its record on the shoulders of its outstanding defense. But the Hawkeyes inability to score (remember, they were blanked by both Michigan and Penn State and only put up more than 20 points four times this season), will catch up to them against an opponent like Tennessee, a squad that averaged 31.5 points and racked up 453.5 yards per game. By comparison, the Hawkeyes are the fourth-worst scoring team in the country at just 16.6 points per game. Regardless of how good Iowa’s defense is, keeping pace the high—flying Volunteers bottled up is a big ask. If you’re extremely confident in Iowa’s defense, go ahead and take the eight points. But if you’re overly concerned about Iowa’s offense – which is a valid concern – stick with Tennessee.